Sen. Blanche Lincoln appears to have survived the political fight of her life, staving off an aggressive challenge by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who was unable to put away the two-term incumbent despite the backing of powerful labor unions who poured millions of dollars into his bid.
As the final votes were being counted, Lincoln, a moderate, seemed to have bucked the anti-incumbent tide that has downed other vulnerable lawmakers this year.
But the battle for a third term, which she has already been fighting for more than a year, is far from over for Lincoln. She would face Rep. John Boozman in November, and so far he is leading in the polls.
Lincoln won the most votes in the May 18 primary but failed to garner 50 percent, forcing the runoff with Halter. In that contest, 13 percent of voters backed conservative Democrat D.C. Morrison in what was considered an anti-Lincoln vote.
Lincoln on Tuesday was able to win over some of the Morrison voters, many of whom were concentrated in conservative districts, as well as hold on to the support she got in the primary.
“What it actually would be about is her having the better mechanics on the ground,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “If you go back and look at the primary, she didn’t win or do as well in places that she should have, not the least of which was her former congressional district. A victory would mean that she probably changed some minds.”
Halter ran as a liberal and crusader for labor causes, but in the small-turnout runoff election, out-of-state labor support could only go so far.
“In Arkansas, like some of the other Southern states, there is no real base of union support,” Little Rock GOP strategist Bill Vickery said.
The two candidates poured more than $10 million into the race, saturating the airwaves with attack ads.
While Lincoln hung on to her seat, Tea Party candidates on Tuesday won the backing of anti-establishment voters in several primary races, including South Carolina’s gubernatorial and 4th District races.
In Nevada, where votes were still being counted, polls showed Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle leading a pack of Republicans in the Senate primary.
“Those are the candidates that are catching fire,” said David Woodard, a political science professor at Clemson University in South Carolina who is also a political consultant and pollster. “Those who are kind of more ideological and able to articulate the conservative principles.”
Woodard serves as a pollster for Trey Gowdy, a former federal prosecutor who on Tuesday surpassed incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis in South Carolina’s 4th District Republican primary. Inglis has drifted to the left, which cost him support in his strongly conservative district. Woodard said polls show Gowdy, who is endorsed by the Tea Party, beating Inglis in a runoff.
“There is a general reaction among conservative Republicans to the liberal drift of the Obama administration and the belief that when Republicans cooperate with Democrats, they get away from those conservative principals and they incur the wrath of their own party,” Woodard said. “That’s what’s happening with Inglis.”
California Republicans also had tough battles, with mainstream GOP hopefuls Meg Whitman leading for governor and Carly Fiorina expected to win the Senate nod handily.
