Progressives dream of a Democratic future. Yet as the 2020 primary heats up, the presidential frontrunners refuse to read the cold, hard numbers for what they say.
At the New York Times, Nate Cohn and Kevin Quealy did a deep dive into the divide between Democrats active on social media and those who are not. Less vocal Democrats, outnumbered 2-to-1 on social media, are overhelmingly more concerned about the overreach of political correctness in the country, identify as moderate or conservative, and are less white and more black. Just one-quarter of Democrats overall consider themselves ideologically consistent progressives, and as Cohn and Quealy note, less engaged voters have “an appreciation for well-known, battle-tested politicians who have been on their side or even delivered in the past.”
While commentators have tried to divvy up multiple lanes Democrats can choose to win the primary, there’s an inherent polarity in the prospect: running to take back Obama-to-Trump country or running to maximize turnout by veering even further left. Democrats have demonstrated that they’re keen to dump the Obama legacy, finally throwing former Vice President Joe Biden under the bus for being overly touchy with women in public life. It’s concern-trolling at best and a vicious weaponization of the #MeToo movement for political gain at worst, but again, while the far left may hope they stumbled onto a silver bullet, the data suggests otherwise.
Biden is battle-tested, bulwarked somewhat against these absurd #MeToo claims with his record on the Violence Against Women Act in the Senate and tackling campus sexual assault in the White House. He is also appealing to the Rust Belt in a primary dominated by disdain for even the most tepid of Trump voters. He also may just be Teflon.
The media may have worked overtime to fuel the Biden brouhaha, but his poll numbers haven’t taken a hit. While Morning Consult found that his “very favorable” rating fell by 6%, he still tops the field. With a whopping 75% overall favorability, Biden remains the most popular candidate in the race by far.
Time and time again, we’ve seen Democrats deny the reality of polling.
Six in 10 Americans support the legality of abortion during first trimester, but the polling clearly indicates that they support it as a last resort — as Democrats used to swear, “safe, legal, and rare.” The overwhelming majority of the country is either satisfied with the nation’s abortion laws or wants them stricter. Only 45% of Americans support women getting abortions for solely personal reasons, even in the first trimester of pregnancy. Yet Democrats have embraced legalizing abortion up until the very point of birth and refuse to vote on laws protecting fully viable babies born alive during an abortion.
Think that’s a winning issue outside of Bushwick? Just 13% of Americans — and even just 18% of Democrats — support legalizing third trimester abortion.
Everyone likes the idea of free stuff, but just 37% of Americans support a government-financed healthcare plan that eliminates private health insurance and jacks up their taxes. Too bad for Democrats, the same Medicare For All plan that Bernie’s gotten his competitors to endorse with him does both.
The greatest case against President Trump isn’t one of policy but of norms. His judicial appointees and actual enacted policies haven’t defied mainstream conservatism, and they certainly haven’t lived up to left-wing hopes of cataclysm. But he’s defended the world’s worst dictators on public, calling Kim Jong Un his “friend” and openly allowed Vladimir Putin to equivocate on Russia’s attempt to corrode the integrity of our elections. He’s referred to literal neo-Nazis as “very fine people” and uses the presidency as a bully pulpit.
Running a known entity like Biden presents an easy case for the disaffected center: The past decade wasn’t so awful under Obama, and we need a solid, sane guy to bring back normalcy to the Oval Office.
Instead Democrats want to lurch even further leftward, practically gifting Trump the ability to say that he is the stable candidate. With another four years of Trump, you get more bad tweets, chaotic headlines, and relative domestic tranquility in your daily life. Elect President Kamala Harris, and we’re looking at court packing, federal jobs guarantees, and babies’ skulls crushed after botched abortions in the ninth month of pregnancy.
Democrats have a decision to make. The data should render it easy, but if the past few months have served as any indication, they’ll find a way to ignore it.
