The NFL’s playoff race grows tighter and tighter every week, fantasy football leagues are in the semifinals stage, and the competitions for some of the league’s major awards are heating up. There’s a lot to take in, so here are the three most important games of the NFL’s Week 15 that you can’t miss.
Last week, my picks went 1-2 after some nail-biters and upsets, but this season, I’m still 26-16 straight up and 22-19 against the spread (with one push). Here are my picks for Week 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-9), 1 p.m. ET on FOX
Tampa Bay is currently the sixth seed in the NFC playoff race and needs to keep pace with the rest of the conference. The Buccaneers play the Falcons twice in their final three games and get their first crack at them this week.
The Falcons suffered another gut-punch loss last week to the Los Angeles Chargers and now must face Tom Brady, the man responsible for leading the all-time classic Super Bowl comeback that ripped out the heart of Falcons fans and made “28-3” a legendary meme.
To say that the Falcons’ pass defense is bad is being far too generous. It’s abysmal. They might be in for a long day on Sunday with Tampa Bay’s passing game.
Only two teams, the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Jets, give up more passing yards per game than the Falcons do, while only four teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Falcons have — a huge problem that is only magnified by the fact that only three teams have thrown for more touchdowns this season than the Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers have a top-11 scoring defense and a top-five scoring offense. They’re an incredibly balanced team, but they’re elite offensively when it comes to their receivers. The problem is that they haven’t been able to stay healthy. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can single-handedly beat teams when they’re on, Antonio Brown is headed for the Hall of Fame, Scotty Miller is sneaky good, and Rob Gronkowski is showing that he still has the goods since he’s third on the team in receiving yards and second in touchdown catches.
The Falcons and Buccaneers both have putrid run games. You’d think that guys such as Todd Gurley II, Leonard Fournette, and LeSean McCoy would have better numbers, but Ronald Jones II has made them all look silly by comparison. Jones II is averaging 5 yards per carry this season for Tampa Bay and is 100 yards away from a 1,000-yard season. Gurley, who leads the Falcons backfield, hasn’t even cracked 650 yards on the season. Jones II has also snagged nearly 30 passes out of the backfield as well.
Both teams have top-10 run defenses. In fact, Tampa Bay leads the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, ceding just 80.9 yards per game on the ground.
The health of Julio Jones will be a key factor in the game. He missed the Chargers game last week due to injury, and his mere presence affects the game in a big way when he’s on the field.
The Falcons haven’t shown the ability to trade punches with a quality opponent this year and win. In order to beat the Buccaneers, they’ll need a big improvement in one of their worst statistical categories: red-zone defense. The Falcons allow opponents to score touchdowns on 68.2% of their red-zone drives. Only three teams give up touchdowns at a higher rate when opponents get inside the 20. In order to keep pace with the Buccaneers, the Falcons will need to force the team to walk away with field goals instead of touchdowns.
The line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.0)
The pick: Don’t overthink it. Tampa Bay is the better team and is highly motivated because of the playoff race. I’m taking the Buccaneers to win and cover.
Chicago Bears (6-7) at Minnesota Vikings (6-7), 1 p.m. ET on FOX
Dan Bailey’s four missed kicks last week may lead to the Vikings missing the playoffs since they have little margin for error. They have the Chicago Bears, the New Orleans Saints, and the Detroit Lions in front of them. The Bears still have a shot too, and they kept their hopes alive last week with a massive rout of the Houston Texans. Either way, this may be a playoff elimination game: The loser will be 6-8 and would need to win out and get a lot of help to still make the cut.
Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky is very inconsistent but had a great game last week against the Texans. David Montgomery is heating up at the perfect time as well. He has three rushing touchdowns in his last two games and ran for over 100 yards in two of his last three contests. Something that really stood out to me was his efficiency in those two games because he only needed 11 carries in each of them to break the 100-yard threshold.
Meanwhile, Allen Robinson III continues to be an absolute machine as a receiver. He hauled in nine catches for 123 yards and a touchdown last week. That brings his season totals to 86 catches, 1,027 yards, and six touchdowns. Eighteen of those 86 catches have gone for at least 20 yards.
As for the Vikings, Kirk Cousins is also an inconsistent quarterback but has tasted more regular season and playoff success than Trubisky. On paper, the Vikings have a much better offense. Dalvin Cook is one of the best and most versatile running backs in football while Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen make for a devastating duo at wide receiver.
Cook is having a massive season. He’s averaging nearly 113 yards per game, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has run for 14 touchdowns. He’s getting it done out of the backfield as a receiver as well, with 37 catches for 322 yards and a touchdown.
- The Vikings are tied for third in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The Bears are 27th.
- The Vikings are sixth in rushing yards per game. The Bears are 28th.
- The Vikings are 14th in scoring offense. The Bears are 25th.
- The Vikings are fifth in red-zone offense. The Bears are 17th.
- The Bears are also dead-last in third-down offense. They’re converting on a paltry 31.9% of third-down plays.
- The Bears’ defense will be what keeps them in this game. They’re 10th in scoring defense. The Vikings, by comparison, are 24th.
The Bears held the Vikings to 19 points in a loss earlier this year in Chicago, so they know what works from a scheme standpoint. One huge difference is that Nick Foles was under center in that game, and Trubisky should be starting this week. Can last week’s win supercharge the Bears offense and get enough out of them to top the Vikings?
The line: Minnesota Vikings (-3.0)
The pick: I don’t think what we saw from the Bears last week will manifest again in Minnesota. I’m taking the Vikings to win and cover.
Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) at New Orleans Saints (10-3), 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Saints quarterback Drew Brees is still recovering from his litany of injuries, and the Saints say they won’t try to rush him back for this game. They want him to be able to practice fully and have a full range of motion.
On the Chiefs side, Patrick Mahomes has shown no such problems and is having another monster season. He leads the NFL in passing yards with 4,208 and has thrown 33 touchdowns with a mere five interceptions. He’s averaging nearly 343 yards per game and is completing 68.4% of his passes.
The overwhelming majority of those passes are going to two guys in particular: tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Kelce, who earlier this year became the first tight end in NFL history with five 1,000-yard seasons, actually leads the NFL in receiving yards right now. He also leads the team in catches and catches of at least 20 yards. Hill has 14 touchdowns to Kelce’s nine and trails by nearly 100 in receiving yards and just two in catches of at least 20 yards. Hill adds a dangerous element in the run game as well. While he has only gotten 12 handoffs so far this season, he’s averaging 10.2 yards per carry and has scored two touchdowns.
The Chiefs offense is as good as you probably think it is. They’re averaging 6.6 yards per play on offense and score points on 50.8% of their drives. Both of those marks lead the league. They’re second in scoring offense at 31 points per game, just 0.5 behind the Green Bay Packers.
New Orleans is no slouch. The Saints are seventh in scoring offense and have gone 3-1 with Taysom Hill under center in place of Brees. Two of the three wins came against the Falcons, and the other came against the Denver Broncos. However, the Saints just lost to the lowly Philadelphia Eagles in Jalen Hurts’s first-ever start at quarterback. That tells me some of the Taysom Hill magic may be wearing off as defenses and defensive coordinators start to figure him out a little bit more.
New Orleans is going to have to rely heavily on Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas in order to have success on Sunday. Kamara got his season off to a historic start and is having a really impressive year. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns and also leads the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards. He has eight catches of at least 20 yards and four touchdown catches on the year. Thomas, despite being injured for much of the season and having only played in seven games so far this year, is still third on the squad in catches and receiving yards. The Chiefs are 26th in the NFL in defending the run. The formula for New Orleans on offense seems pretty easy. Run the ball, and then run it some more.
Both teams are in the top five when it comes to extending drives on third down, but the Saints have a much better conversion percentage in the red zone. The Saints are scoring touchdowns on 68% of their trips to the red zone, while the Saints are barely clearing 57%.
The Saints’ defense is really good and will be the key factor in this game. Only two teams allow fewer yards per play than the Saints do, only three have allowed fewer points, and only one has allowed fewer yards. Their defense is seventh in the NFL in total takeaways and fourth at forcing turnovers, getting the ball back on just over 12% of opponents’ drives.
They have the NFL’s fourth-best scoring defense and are fourth at defending the pass and second at defending the run. Will this elite and complete defense be able to pressure, flummox, and contain Mahomes and the high-octane Chiefs offense?
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0)
The pick: Playing without a true home-crowd advantage, I don’t think the Saints can beat the Chiefs without Brees under center. I’m taking Kansas City to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
