Russo-Georgia Conflict Update

* The Russian aim appears to be permanently neutralizing the Georgian military, annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and retaining the ability to intervene unilaterally in Georgia to any extent Moscow desires-including deposing the Georgian government.? Nothing the U.S. or NATO has done or has threatened to do appears to have weakened Russian determination in this regard.? Russia has matched every NATO/US move with a counter-move or a counter-threat of its own.? We are de facto in an escalation game with the Russians that they appear to be winning.? Worse still, Moscow does not appear to believe that the West has the will to escalate enough to win in the end.? Russia still hopes that it can split Europe from the U.S., and believes that it can do so.? It does not believe that even the annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will lead to meaningful long-term pain because Moscow believes that Russia has become an indispensible nation that the West cannot survive without.? We will therefore have to come to terms, ultimately, with whatever the Russians decide they want, according to this view.? There do not appear at this point to be any significant trends within the Russian government’s statements or behavior to suggest that the current Western approach is anything like adequate to prevent further escalation of this crisis. * Russia has claimed that the U.S.-Poland agreement on BMD sites is aimed at Russia and threatens retaliation.? See below for details and links about this assertion. * NATO has promised to reconsider Georgian membership in December and offered a variety of immediate assistance, but not military assistance.? The Russians have made it plain that they would regard any sort of military assistance to Georgia as an attempt to “rearm” Georgia to encourage Tbilisi to undertake a new “blitzkrieg” in South Ossetia. * Abkhazia and South Ossetia have requested Russian recognition of their independence; the Russian Federation Council will hold an extraordinary session on August 25 to consider these requests.? A Russian parliamentarian stated that Russia was quite willing to allow both republics, once independent, to join the Russian Federation. * The Russian military appears to have declared most of Georgia to be a no-fly zone, at least for Georgian military aircraft, enforcing this declaration by shooting down a Georgian UAV over the airbase at Vaziani, southeast of Tbilisi and well outside not only the boundaries of South Ossetia, but even the boundaries of any expanded “security zone” the Russians might wish to establish. * Russia claims that its forces will be withdrawn in 3-4 days, but that withdrawal is “conditions-based”-Russia will withdraw from Georgia to the extent that the Georgian military moves back to its permanent bases.? The Russian military has made clear that it views the concentration of Georgian force around Georgia’s capital to be a violation of that agreement and a provocation. * The Cold War filings are lining up, independent of what the U.S. or Russia does:? Belarussian President Lukashenko visited Abkhazia and South Ossetia; Latvian parliamentarians visited Tbilisi. * The Russian press, at least, is using the occasion of Bashar al Assad’s visit to Moscow to claim that Russia should expand its ties and military bases in Syria in retaliation for Israel’s support to Georgia. * Russia intends to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia soon, and subsequently to incorporate them into the Russian Federation. * Russia intends to deter or prevent the U.S. or NATO from re-arming Georgia even to the pre-war level. * Russia has generated enough pretexts for continued violations of Georgian sovereignty (beyond Abkhazia and South Ossetia) that it will be able to re-invade or attack from the air at any time for many months to come.