“It appears [Perry] has little or no hope” to cast himself as the anti-Romney candidate, writes The Washington Examiner’s Byron York, and it’s the “little” that catches my eye. Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, had a major gaffe in the most recent Republican debate, but even that does not necessarily end his campaign. He remains a candidate, and he is still spending money in Iowa. He could even win there, but it’s not going to be easy.
Perry took the first step to recovery when he said “I stepped in it,” and told a reporter “yeah, it was embarrassing” after the debate. He might have taken the second step in making a few jokes at his own expense on Late Night with David Letterman. He can repeat some variation of those lines to voters in Iowa whenever the topic comes up. He or his wife should be in a different church in Iowa every other week talking to the Christian conservatives who catapulted Mike Huckabee to victory in Iowa.
Perry has been praised as being “just remarkably good at working a room.” It may be that caucus-goers who talk to Perry weigh that experience far more heavily than what they see on TV or read about the “negative narrative” of Perry’s gaffes.
It helps Perry that his chief opponents in Iowa have such significant vulnerabilities with respect to that race. To win the Iowa caucuses, he has to convince a very Christian, social-conservative electorate that he represents their values better than a) a serial wedding groom (Newt Gingrich), b) someone serially accused of sexual harassment (Herman Cain) and c) a former Planned Parenthood donor (Mitt Romney).
To make that argument, Perry can draw on his $15 million cash on hand, or rather whatever is left of it. The Rick Perry SuperPAC can be expected to spend a lot of money — already raised — on his behalf and attacking his rivals.
Perhaps the most significant negative result of Perry’s debate gaffe, from his perspective, is that potential donors will not only cut him off but give money to other candidates instead. Perry has both the money and the time to compete in Iowa. If he wins there, no one will even remember his abysmal track-record as a debater.
At this point, a Perry comeback has long odds. Like an NFL team on the verge of elimination from the playoffs, he doesn’t control his own destiny — but he is still in it. His best assets going forward are the weaknesses in each of his opponents’ campaigns. The real question: Will he show some competence, at last, and put himself in a position to capitalize on those weaknesses?
