The state that elected Democrat Doug Jones over Republican Roy Moore to the Senate on Tuesday handed President Trump its electoral votes just over one year ago by a margin of 28 percentage points. A look at turnout patterns in Alabama’s special election to fill Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ old seat in the upper chamber poses some interesting questions.
Writing in the New York Times, Nate Cohn took a look at the numbers:
In Alabama’s two best-educated counties — Madison County and predominantly white Shelby County — turnout surged 30 percent above 2014 levels. These are two Republican-leaning counties, which would seem to suggest that Mr. Jones was winning and turning out Republican-leaning voters, not just benefiting from low G.O.P. turnout or high Democratic turnout.
Mr. Jones won 18 percent more raw votes in Shelby County than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and it is not plausible to suggest that he did so by tapping into Democratic voters who didn’t turn out in the much-higher-turnout presidential race.
That’s impressive, but also makes sense when considering the disturbing sexual misconduct allegations against Moore created a unique conflict for Alabama’s Republican electorate that may not be replicated elsewhere in the near future.
“There was no such turnout surge in white, working-class Alabama,” Cohn continued to observe. “In fact, turnout was lower than it was in 2014 in many of Alabama’s mostly white, working-class counties. In Alabama’s least-educated, predominantly white counties, the turnout was often far lower than it was in 2014. In Fayette County, where just 13 percent of voters have a college degree, turnout landed at just 69 percent of 2014 levels.”
Was turnout lower in those counties because of dampened enthusiasm for Moore, whose candidacy was dogged by unusual circumstances? Perhaps even Trump’s endorsement of Moore was not enough to motivate his supporters to vote. Given that those counties saw lower turnout than in 2014, before Trump, a combination of those possibilities could be responsible. Cohn posited Alabama’s turnout pattern “suggests that President Trump’s less educated and affluent version of the Republican coalition has eroded the party’s traditional turnout advantage” in midterm elections, meaning those voters that make up Trump’s core base of support may not be as reliable between presidential election years compared to voters in the usual Republican base. Heading into 2018, the GOP should pay especially close attention to those numbers.
Trump’s “base” is an enigmatic force, one that we still don’t seem to fully understand. It’s clearly not the same as the Republican base, and as elections occur under his tenure in the White House, the party may need to adjust accordingly.
