President Trump has made the most of his bully pulpit from Day One; whether announcing hirings and firings, heaping pressure on opponents, or driving share prices up and down with a pithy comment, he has used Twitter to go about the business of government.
So, it is perhaps no surprise that he turned to his cellphone in the aftermath of Iranian missile strikes in Iraq and the downing of a Ukrainian 737 as it took off from Tehran’s airport. When vigils for the airliner’s passengers erupted into anti-government protests, he tweeted, “To the brave, long-suffering people of Iran: I’ve stood with you since the beginning of my Presidency, and my administration will continue to stand with you. We are following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage.”
Not so unusual. What was surprising, however, was the tweet that came minutes later. It contained the same message but translated into Farsi. It rapidly accrued almost 350,000 likes, making it, by some counts, the most widely circulated Persian tweet in history.
In so doing, it represented a new tool in America’s arsenal of tactics in the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran’s rulers, while at the same time illustrating the pros and cons of more profound engagement with the country’s protests. Critics point out that the move ties the protesters to Trump and helps Tehran’s authorities paint the protesters as agents of the “Great Satan.” At the same time, supporters say it raises the international profile of demonstrations, making them tougher to stamp out.
A senior administration official said Twitter offered a platform to show solidarity with the protesters.
“The president has stood with the Iranian people from Day One,” he said. “Tweeting in Farsi is another way for the president to communicate his support and reassure the Iranian people that the rest of the world is with them, even though the regime is not.”
Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said the tweets followed the work of the virtual U.S. Embassy in Tehran, which promotes American policy, and messages from other officials that had been translated into Persian. She said the tweets might have had more impact on the Iranian diaspora than people in Tehran.
“This is a country that has been traumatized for 40 years off and on, but especially since Trump came in and quit the nuclear deal and imposed sanctions,” she said. “Now, in the past couple of weeks, with everything that’s occurred, coming to the brink of war, Soleimani being assassinated, the tragic shooting down of this Ukrainian airliner, I think what Donald Trump is tweeting is the last thing on anyone’s mind.”
It raises another question. Tweets are no substitute for fully formulated policy statements. Analysts wonder what comes next, what Trump’s messages are designed to achieve, and how they fit into the administration’s strategy.
“Nobody understands what the goal is,” said Slavin, “so how can we possibly be successful? Is it regime change? Is it new negotiations? If it’s new negotiations, why wouldn’t they let [Foreign Minister] Javid Zarif come into the United States the other week?”
Throwing White House support behind Iran’s anti-government protests smacks of pushing for regime change, but officials insist that that is not the aim. Instead, they say the “maximum pressure” strategy has other objectives: reining in Iran’s ambitions in the Middle East, taming its proxy armies, and preventing it from ever building a nuclear weapon. Ultimately, that would come in the form of a broader Iran deal that deals not just with atomic proliferation but the other concerns, including curbing ballistic missile tests.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spelled it out during a speech at Stanford University.
“We just want Iran to behave like a normal nation,” he said, adding for good measure, “Just be like Norway, right?”
How that happens remains to be seen.
