Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, the third Democratic presidential candidate to exit the crowded 2020 field, had good reason to do so now. Inslee is planning to run for reelection in Washington, seeking a third term in 2020.
Five days before Inslee’s announced departure on Wednesday, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper quit the race with a similar imperative. Going nowhere on the national scene, Hickenlooper on Thursday announced he’s running for Senate in Colorado, where incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner is among the most endangered Republicans.
And when Rep. Eric Swalwell of California quit the presidential scrum on July 8, he needed to focus on his Bay Area district instead. Due to the Golden State’s “top two” election rules, another Democrat could make a serious run for his House seat, and staying in the presidential race wouldn’t likely help nail down support back home.
But while the trio who dropped out faced pressure to prepare for other campaigns, lack of filing deadlines or other similar political pressures frees their low-performing former presidential rivals to stay in for awhile.
“If you’re not an officeholder or not on the ballot in 2020, you have a little more time. But the costs outweigh the benefit the longer you stay in the race,” Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh told the Washington Examiner.
Inslee would have needed 2% support in four qualifying polls by Aug. 28 to make the September debate stage, and had none. In an email to supporters on Wednesday, Inslee said that he would not make the debate. “I don’t believe we can compete for the attention and exposure needed to have a reasonable shot at the nomination,” the email said.
The governor was further ahead, however, than other candidates in meeting the other metrics for inclusion in the fall Democratic presidential primary debates. He said on Monday that he surpassed 130,000 individual donors, a mark that candidates including Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand have not yet met.
Democratic strategist Joe Trippi told the Washington Examiner that among the candidates polling at about 1%, those who want to seek reelection or other office face pressure to prepare for those campaigns. Filing deadlines for those races are at the forefront of their minds when knowing when to quit the presidential race, he said.
“You can’t pull out five days before the filing deadline,” said Trippi, whose vast Democratic campaign experience includes managing former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s insurgent bid for the 2004 nomination.
Making a quick pivot back to a state or local race takes tact and skill, Marsh said.
“For some candidates who are officeholders and on the ballot in 2020, there’s no time like Labor Day to leave this race and reacquaint yourself with the voters who elected you,” she said.
Gov. Inslee announced his reelection campaign on Thursday, less than 24 hours after ending his presidential bid. When Swalwell dropped out, he indicated that he would seek reelection to his House seat. Gov. John Hickenlooper waited a few days to enter the Senate race after giving up his White House campaign.
Trippi says that he expects the pace of candidates dropping out to “pick up dramatically.”
In Montana, Bullock has faced pressure to challenge Republican Sen. Steve Daines rather than run for president. Bullock says that he is not interested, a response that Hickenlooper gave before later changing his mind.
A spokesperson for Ryan’s campaign told the Washington Examiner in June that he plans to run for reelection as well as for president. He has until December to file reelection paperwork.
Other candidates do not face the same pressure. Gillibrand and Bennet do not have to worry about reelection campaigns until after 2020.
“There’s really no reason to be the first person out of this race right now,” Trippi said. “All of them hope that the next poll shows that they’ve reached the threshold.”
And there’s logic to it, Trippi said.
“It’s not a dumb strategy to hold whatever your resources you have left and wait and let everybody else get out, and then try to be the last one” of the 1%-ers to “make some kind of push onto debate stage. It may be impossible, but that might not be a bad strategy.”
Financial pressures could push other candidates from the race. If a campaign can’t pay for a flight to a debate or for a ticket to a key early state Democratic Party event, it will likely end.
One thing that candidates are not worried about, Trippi said, is bowing out of the race “gracefully” to avoid hurting their reputations. People generally do not remember when candidates finally decide to end their bids or the order in which candidates drop out. It’s possible that some low-performing candidates stay in the race until the Iowa caucuses in February to test how they perform with actual voters rather than in polls.
