It has been 2020 for nearly two days now, and Elizabeth Warren’s campaign has issued not one peep about her final quarter of the year’s fundraising. Bernie Sanders has boasted of his record-breaking $34.5 million haul, Pete Buttigieg nearly matched his own excellent third quarter with $24.7 million, and Joe Biden improved to an impressive $22.7 million. But Warren still hasn’t announced her totals. As the hours go on, it’s increasingly likely that they reveal a campaign on the wane.
After a precipitous fall in her polling numbers, Warren’s national polling has plateaued at about 15% of the primary vote. In a still-crowded primary where states issue their delegates proportionally rather than in the winner-take-all manner of GOP contests, that means Warren still has a real shot at the Democratic nomination. But every piece of evidence about her fundraising indicates that it isn’t a great shot. She is betting everything on a strong showing in Iowa to revive whatever perception remains that she’s electable. Otherwise, her campaign is toast.
On Sunday, Dec. 29, Warren emailed a Hail Mary plea to her supporters, asking them to add to the $17 million they had raised thus far. By New Year’s Eve, two days later, she still hadn’t raised $20 million — or so she claimed in another email asking for support.
For reference, Andrew Yang, someone no one had ever heard of until a year ago, raked in nearly $17 million last quarter, more than $1.3 million of which was raised on New Year’s Eve. The difference is that Yang is on the rise. He raised $10 million in the third quarter of the year and just $2.8 million the quarter prior to that. By contrast, Warren likely peaked with her $24.7 million last quarter.
She seems incapable of cracking 15% in New Hampshire, and Biden is set to run away with South Carolina. So, she has to do it in Iowa. If Warren can’t turn a year of media sycophancy and more than $80 million of donor support into a decent delegate count in the early state best suited to her, then her donor base will dry up for good, and with it her last chance at the Oval Office.
