Republicans didn’t see it coming in Pennsylvania until it was too late.
Conor Lamb looks poised Tuesday night to win narrowly in the red district that went for President Trump by 20 points in 2016, boosting an already-emboldened party.
The race has yet to be officially called, but that didn’t stop Lamb from taking on a victorious tone when addressing supporters in Canonsburg, Pa., after midnight. “It took a little longer than we thought, but we did it,” he said to applause.
“These results should terrify Republicans,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Lujan said in a statement. “Despite their home field advantage and the millions of dollars outside groups poured into this race, Republicans found that their attacks against Conor, including their unpopular tax scam, were not believable.”
For many Democrats it’s validation of the growing wave. It’s also a sign that historical norms appear to be intact: The first midterm into a presidency favors the opposing party. Showing, even Trump, who has dodged Republican oversight while defying numerous traditions of the office, is not impervious to electoral patterns.
As Rep. Mike Doyle, D-Pa., said in the final days leading up to the special election, Democrats had “already won.” Even if Lamb lost by a point or two, the Pennsylvania Democrat said, “That’s a victory.”
Democrats “were not supposed to be competitive here,” Doyle added with a grin.
A small number of absentee ballots remain uncounted and Pennsylvania does allow for recounts. No winner was declared on Election Day.
Republicans have held the Eighteenth Congressional District, which runs up against the West Virginia border and engulfs part of the Pittsburgh suburbs, for 15 years. A potential Lamb win changes that, albeit briefly.
Though the district is expected to vanish due to a ruling by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, a Lamb victory would have repercussions nationally. Not only will Democrats keep momentum in their corner, boosting enthusiasm in the base, but the outcome in Pennsylvania will be viewed as a harbinger of things to come.
“Symbolically it’s a big blow for Republicans, because they obviously put a ton of resources into this race,” said Kyle Kondik of the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The gravity of Lamb’s lead in a district that heavily favored Trump is expected to spur more Republican retirements. If Democrats can win in a district that Republicans should have easily won, the task of holding onto seats in districts like those in Orange County that went for Hillary Clinton appear all the more daunting.
And as Kondik wrote in Crystal Ball, “no Democratic [House] incumbent is now rated worse than likely Democratic, a nod to the reality that in a Democratic-leaning environment it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge” Democratic incumbents.
Lamb’s performance also punctures the notion that Trump’s voters will blindly back a Republican candidate down-ballot. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence visited the district in the last week, hoping to boost Republican candidate Rick Saccone. But Trump’s rallies, the near $10 million spent by outside GOP groups, and the Republican tax plan couldn’t save the seat. Not even ads tying Lamb to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi — a favorite boogeywoman for Republicans — made a dent.
“It shows an ability for Democrats to compete in territory that’s been moving away from them,” Kondik said. “It shows that with the right candidate, the right environment that Democrats can compete.”
The national environment undoubtedly favors Democrats. They are the opposition party in a midterm election, and Trump’s approval ratings are low. But Democrats arguably got lucky with Lamb, who wasn’t hand-picked and who steered clear of national Democrats, receiving little help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Crowded Democratic primaries across the country will make it harder for a candidate who might be best suited for the general to emerge.
