When evaluating Rick Perry’s 2016 presidential prospects, which should carry more weight? The impressive campaign launch we just saw in Texas, featuring a smooth, confident candidate surrounded by Navy SEALs or the bumbling, stumbling candidate we saw in 2012?
By now everybody knows the story with Perry’s first presidential campaign. While still governor of Texas, he jumped into the Republican primaries late but quickly emerged as the challenger most likely to take down Mitt Romney.
Perry was to the right of Romney politically, boasted a strong record of jobs and growth in Texas, had real money and some organization behind him and was not entirely implausible as a general election candidate.
Then Perry was a disaster in the debates. He allowed Romney to cast serious doubt on both his conservatism and electability. His organization seemed to split between Texans who were loyal to him but had never run a national campaign and people with more national experience but less of an inherent connection to the candidate.
Whether you blame medication for back pain, a late start, hostile media coverage that exaggerated the significance of Perry’s inability to name three government agencies he’d shutter or something more fundamental with the candidate, he quickly plummeted from first place to fifth place in Iowa. He was out of the running by South Carolina.
Perry’s 2016 launch was the first indication he’s given that there could be more to him as a national candidate. Maybe with more preparation, an earlier start and a healthier candidate, the results could be different this time. The country-rap version of Perry emphasizes he answers to nobody.
But like the 1980s shampoo commercial said, you never get a second chance to make a first impression. A lot of voters have the 2012 image of Perry etched into their minds. There are plenty of new candidates now in a stronger field. With Ted Cruz already in the race, Perry can’t even take Texas for granted.
The funny thing is that if Perry hadn’t run in 2012, it’s easy to imagine him as a top-tier candidate this time. But he did run and nothing he does can un-ring that bell. Can he somehow make a positive second impression strong enough to erase the first?
Will the real Rick Perry please stand up?
