Meeting in Tokyo on Tuesday, the so-called “Quad” foreign ministers pledged to continue working for a “free and open Indo-Pacific [region].” While Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is more forward-leaning than his counterparts here, China’s own actions will ensure the Quad grows in confidence and size.
Formed by Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, the Quad represents the key democratic powers of the Indo-Pacific region. New Zealand should be a part of the grouping but prefers appeasing Beijing to the responsibilities of maintaining the liberal international order. That said, the Quad is not a unitary defensive bloc a la NATO. Japan exemplifies as much.
Led by a new and less hawkish Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, Japan wants to maintain its longstanding U.S. alliance while improving ties with China. On Monday, Suga said he would “build stable relationships with neighboring countries including China and Russia.” This tone concerns Washington, which had become accustomed to Shinzo Abe’s resolute stance towards Beijing. Pompeo carefully addressed this concern on Tuesday, stating that the U.S. had “every reason to believe [Suga] will strengthen our enduring alliance in his new role.” While those words might seem like praise, in diplomatic translation terms, Pompeo is really saying “we’re your closest ally, but we won’t be happy if you kowtow to China. We’ll be watching.” What of the other two?
Australia is near rock-solid with America, but India is still assessing how far it wants to go in challenging China. These differences of opinion are catnip to Beijing. Yet, albeit inadvertently, Xi Jinping himself is the Quad’s best fuel. Over time, Xi will ensure that the Quad only grows in strength, size, and resolution. One factor undergirds why: Xi’s arrogant ambition.
Ultimately, Xi wants to replace the U.S.-led liberal international order with a China-led feudal mercantile order. That will inherently be to the detriment of the Quad democracies, whose future prosperity needs a basic foundation of rules-based trade and political engagement. Whatever their individual disagreements on strategy and interests, each of these governments recognize that if China is able to set the rules of the game, their people will be poorer, and their interests less secure. China doesn’t seem to get this. Playing up differences within the Quad, the Global Times propaganda newspaper declared victory. “The US has been barking aloud before and during the Quad meeting,” it declared, “But will it bite with expected ‘unity’ from the Quad? The answer is no.”
The Global Times completely misses the point that China’s derision for the interests of others will source its global restraint. The newspaper’s dripping arrogance makes clear as much. It offers only insults for each of the four Quad members that they will just not countenance. The paper, which takes orders from the powerful Central Foreign Affairs Commission, crows that whether Japan wants “to become a normal state or seek major power status, [it will] need the support of China to be realized.” India “is a country that tends to have higher confidence than its actual strength.” The Global Times then asks “how much strength does Australia own with its limited economy and population? Moreover, if Canberra is bent on infuriating China, Australia will only face the dire consequences.”
Lesson: Do what we say, or we’ll make you pay. Not exactly the ingredients for an inspiring invitation to global cooperation. Here we see the true face of Xi’s Chinese Communist Party. For all its claims of mutually beneficial global engagement, Xi’s regime quite openly cares about nothing but itself. And by itself, I mean the Standing Committee and Politburo, most certainly not the Chinese people. Making policy in that vein, whether this year, next year, or the year after, China’s own actions will ensure that the Quad finds new strength, numbers, and resolution to resist.
