President Trump’s personal investment in red-state Senate races paid off Tuesday night as Republican retained — and may yet increase — their majority, even as Democrats captured the House thanks to a suburban anti-Trump uprising.
Trump’s public schedule was empty on Tuesday, as all that was left for him to do was accept the voters’ judgment. Despite the loss of the House after eight years in GOP hands, he sounded jubilant, saying in an 11.15pm tweet: “tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!”
Even though Trump wasn’t on the ballot, the president has put himself on it in all but name. Democratic victories were a rebuke from the voters. He rallied for GOP Senate candidates in search of reaffirmation.
[CLICK HERE for complete midterm election coverage and results]
Republicans performed well in the Senate, holding Tennessee and picking up Democratic-held seats in Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri. Democrats beat back a challenge in Trump-friendly West Virginia. The also GOP looked poised to take Florida from the Democrats.
As we learned in 2016, nothing is written in stone until the ballots are counted. Just as Democrats weren’t ready to write off their chances in the Senate, Republicans clung desperately to hopes they’d hold the House. But the GOP was defending a 23-seat majority, including two dozen Republican-held districts Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Ten Democrats were running for re-election to the Senate in states Trump carried, about half of them in places where he remains popular.
Republicans weren’t always able to compete in Trump-state Senate races, however. The president campaigned in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but none of the GOP candidates emerged in those races. There was a late push to promote John James, the Republican nominee for Senate in Michigan.
The only Republican Senate challenger to take a commanding lead in the public polling over a Democratic incumbent was Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., up by 9 points over Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., in the RealClearPolitics average. Josh Hawley is less than 1 point ahead of Sen. Claire McCaskill. Democrats won with Joe Manchin in West Virginia, a state Trump won by 42 points, but Republican Mike Braun beat Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana, and Gov. Rick Scott is clinging to the narrowest of leads in Florida’s Senate race.
Democrats not only tried to flip Republican seats in Arizona (where Trump won by a slim margin) and Nevada (which went for Clinton), but they have expanded their map to include the ruby-red states of Tennessee and Texas. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has been an inviting target for liberal donors across the country, to the benefit of his charismatic Democratic challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas. Former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen has a history of winning GOP crossover votes and made things difficult for Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn despite the state’s pro-Trump tilt — but both Democrats still ultimately fell short.
Trump invested significant political capital in trying to keep the Senate in Republican hands. He hosted 11 rallies in eight states in the final week before Election Day. He threw red meat to the red states, focusing on immigration, crime, and conservative judges.
Speaking at a rally last month, Trump declared this an election about Supreme Court Justice Brett “Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order, and common sense.” He predicted Republicans will exceed expectations because the economy is growing, unemployment is low, jobs are being created, and Kavanaugh was confirmed and then celebrated afterward.
History was working against Republicans in the House. In 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost seats. This is especially true when the president’s job approval rating is below 50 percent. Trump’s national numbers are better than George W. Bush’s in 2006, but he is a liability in a number of suburban Republican districts.
The final RealClearPolitics polling average showed voters preferring a Democratic Congress to a Republican controlled one by 7.3 points. Democrats were up by 7 in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal, 13 points in a CNN survey.
The 2020 presidential race will begin in earnest as soon as the midterm election’s outcome is clear.
