Readers deserve a fair chance to decide between the persistent optimism of these columns, and the more numerous and far gloomier forecasts. So let me lay out and consider the worst-case scenario. I report, you decide.

The economy is not merely slowing, it is heading toward recession. New home sales are 34 percent below year-earlier levels, as homes move from builder to buyer at the slowest pace in 13 years. The market for existing homes is no better: sales are down 23 percent, and the inventory of unsold homes has is rising.

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