New unemployment insurance claims rose to 276,000 last week, the Department of Labor reported Thursday morning, up from 265,000 the week before and the highest level since the end of January.
Private-sector economists had expected just a slight uptick to 266,000, according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg.
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The monthly average of claims, which is less volatile than the weekly number, rose by 3,500 to 263,250, still near decades-low levels.
Jobless claims serve as a high-frequency gauge of the strength of the economy because they are released weekly. Higher claims mean more layoffs, and a lower number means fewer layoffs and greater job growth.
One complicating factor for this week’s report is that the Easter holiday could have made it more difficult for the Labor Department to adjust the claims numbers for seasonal variations. As one economist noted, the fact that Easter is a “floating” holiday makes it difficult to correct for. Nevertheless, the Labor Department said that no special factors affected Thursday numbers.
Economists reckon that claims below 300,000 entails job growth and falling unemployment rate. Claims haven’t broken that barrier, however, in 56 weeks, the longest such streak since 1973.
The unemployment rate, 4.9 percent in February, will be updated for March on Friday morning, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report. Before Thursday’s jobless numbers, private-sector economists expected the rate to stay steady and for job gains to remain strong at over 200,000, down from 242,000 in February.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has said that job growth of less than 100,000 monthly is all that is needed to keep employment headed up and the unemployment rate trending down.
Still-low jobless claims numbers suggest low odds of a labor market slowdown in the months ahead that could derail the Fed’s plans to tighten monetary policy, and less of a chance of the economy tipping into recession before President Obama leaves office.
