Joe Biden has held steady in South Carolina even as polls have shown him losing ground to Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Iowa and New Hampshire. But the 2020 nomination fight could hinge on whether Biden’s South Carolina firewall, rooted in his support among black voters, can survive an early string of defeats.
More specifically, the RealClearPolitics average has Warren up about three points in Iowa and only trailing him by three points in New Hampshire (though one poll shows her ahead). In contrast, Biden is still up by over 20 points in South Carolina. In theory, this suggests that even if Biden falters early on, he has the chance to recover in the more favorable South Carolina, providing him a pop heading into Super Tuesday, when a massive amount of delegates are up for grabs. Of course, nomination contests do not take place in a vacuum. A poor performance in early states can easily erode Biden’s standing in South Carolina so he may never recover.
Right now, Biden has been especially strong among black voters in the state, who made up over 60% of the Democratic electorate in 2016. A Winthrop University poll finding him beating Warren 37% to 17% actually had him losing to her among whites (29-22), but crushing her among black voters, 46% to 9%.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton stumbled early, despite going into the race seeming inevitable. She barely beat Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa, then Sanders pummeled her in New Hampshire. But she was able to rebound in South Carolina on the back of strong support among black voters, who never warmed up to Sanders.
How solid is Biden’s appeal among black voters in the state and how much are they turned off by Warren? As I noted, in national polls and in California, Warren has started to significantly improve her standing among the demographic. But the same has not been the case in South Carolina, where black voters tend to be older and more regular about attending church.
Former South Carolina state Rep. Bakari Sellers warned in a Twitter thread that Warren hasn’t built relationships with the large number of black voters in the state who live in rural areas and argued that it will be difficult for her to parachute in and ask for their support. For what it’s worth, Sellers has endorsed Sen. Kamala Harris.
Another factor to consider is that while most scenarios about a non-Biden winner of Iowa and New Hampshire involve one candidate winning both, it does not necessarily have to be that way. What if, say, Pete Buttigieg wins Iowa and Warren recovers and wins New Hampshire, and Biden comes in second in both? Perhaps in that case, neither one of the non-Bidens will be able to gain enough momentum to topple him in South Carolina.
On the flip side, it’s worth considering that Clinton’s lead was much more substantial than Biden’s in South Carolina. She was polling in the 60s in South Carolina at about the time when Iowa and New Hampshire voted and ended up commanding 86% of the black vote. So as comfortable as Biden’s lead in the state is, he’s much more vulnerable to a collapse than Clinton was. Also, given that electability is so central to Biden’s case, early defeats may be especially difficult to shake.
