In his 30-plus years of handicapping House, Senate and governor races, Stuart Rothenberg has generally been pretty cautious. In this recent blog post, however, he steps out of form. “I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a gain of at least seven seats. … But I wouldn’t be shocked by a wider margin.”
Rothenberg inserts appropriate caveats. His newsletter’s current ratings, based on current polling, show a Republican gain of six seats — what they need for a Senate majority — as likely but by no means certain. And as he notes, if President Obama’s job approval should suddenly rise, Republicans’ chances of gaining six or seven states would be sharply reduced. Still, he’s willing to predict a seven-seat-plus “wave.” His reasoning:
There’s been a lot of discussion about whether there will be a Republican “wave” this year, and much debate about the definition of “wave.” I agree with Rothenberg and Nate Silver that the likely result is a Republican Senate majority.
And in this cycle, it seems that — unlike in 2010 and 2012 — it is the Democratic candidates rather than the Republican candidates who are making unforced errors. The latest is Colorado Sen. Mark Udall’s statement in a debate, quickly apologized for, that beheaded journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff would advise the United States “don’t be impulsive” in fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. So it’s quite possible — but, as he admits, by no means certain — that Rothenberg’s intuition is right.
