Four more New Hampshire polls have come out today, and all four show Donald Trump leading well outside the margin of error. They also show a noticeable Marco Rubio bump from his strong third-place finish in Iowa. A Cruz bump is not detectable in these surveys.
The Boston Globe’s poll is the largest (500 likely voters) and the latest (Wednesday and Thursday of this week). It shows a 10-point Trump lead over Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz (7 percent) down in fifth place over Kasich and Jeb Bush.
The other poll of 500 likely voters (U Mass) gives Ted Cruz twice that support (14 percent), placing him nearly tied with Rubio (15 percent).
The result that would create maximum chaos in New Hampshire would involve:
1) Trump winning,
2) Cruz, the Iowa winner, finishing in 5th place in single digits,
3) Kasich finishing ahead of early establishment favorite Rubio.
This is entirely possible given the post-Iowa polls.
Some observations:
Trump’s lead is YUGE
Trump leads Rubio by double digits in all four polls. His lead is 21 in the ARG poll. If you’re looking for a trend, it’s slightly downward, but not much. This is well beyond the margin of error. His turnout deficit may be a lot lower in New Hampshire (a regular primary) than in Iowa (a caucus). If you want Trump to lose New Hampshire, the only hope is major movement in the polls in the final four days.
This isn’t impossible, but history doesn’t provide any precedent. Yes, Romney fell behind McCain after Romney lost Iowa in 2008, but in that case, the lead flipped the day after Iowa–four days out, Romney was already up 2 points (he won by 6 points).
Rubio is in second in all four, beating Kasich
In three of the surveys, he’s tied for second with Kasich or Cruz. In two, he’s clearly in second. He also has far better favorables than Kasich does. In Iowa, Rubio’s high favorables made him the magnet for late-breakers. He could pull that off in New Hampshire, too, which would give him a clear second-place finish, and a chance of challenging Trump.
Jeb is fifth or fourth in all four polls
Will his campaign end on Ash Wednesday?
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
