Whether or not Mitt Romney wins in Iowa tomorrow, his firewall in New Hampshire is showing no signs of weakening.
A new poll of the Granite state, conducted for the New Hampshire Journal, by Magellan Strategies, finds Romney with 41 percent of the vote, with Ron Paul at 21 percent, and Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman — who has been camping out in New Hampshire — at 14 percent.
The poll also finds that 69 percent view Romney favorably, compared to 27 percent who view him unfavorably — which makes him by far the most popular candidate in the state bordering Massachusetts, where he served as governor.
It’s hard to see how Romney could lose New Hampshire at this point, or how anybody can come close. The poll also found that Paul’s 47/42 favorable vs. unfavorable rating suggests he has a bit of a ceiling in New Hampshire.
Rick Santorum, meanwhile, is still stuck at 4 percent with Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn. and Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at 3 percent. So even if Santorum were to win Iowa and come into New Hampshire with a ton of momentum and pick up socially conservative supporters from Bachmann and Perry, he’s unlikely to get anywhere close to Romney.
Keep in mind that in 2008, Barack Obama came out of Iowa with all the momentum in the world and fawning media coverage, and despite polls showing him erasing Hillary Clinton’s 16 point lead in the state, Obama still ultimately lost to her.
If Santorum or Paul were to win Iowa, they’d be subjected to a week of negative scrutiny instead, making it even harder to catch Romney in New Hampshire.
