Attorney General Merrick Garland testified that he doesn’t know whether the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan will increase the risk posed by al Qaeda, seemingly downplaying warnings from the FBI and other intelligence and military officials.
Garland was pressed during his contentious Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Wednesday, with Sen. Lindsey Graham pointing to Senate testimony by Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy. Kahl said the intelligence community assesses ISIS-K (the Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan) and al Qaeda could conduct external operations against the United States between six months to two years. Garland was asked if he agreed.
“I agree that al Qaeda has always presented and continues to present a persistent threat to the United States homeland,” Garland said, dodging the question, with the Republican senator asking if any recent event had changed the likelihood of an attack. Garland began to say, “I don’t know,“ but Graham cut him off, asking, “You don’t know that we withdrew from Afghanistan?”
Garland replied, “I know we withdrew. I don’t know whether the withdrawal will increase the risk from al Qaeda or not.”
ISIS-K is believed to be responsible for the August suicide bombing at the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, which killed 13 U.S. service members. The Taliban, the Haqqani network, and al Qaeda are deeply intertwined in Afghanistan.
Graham pointed to recent testimony by FBI Christopher Wray, who said in September the organization was concerned “there will be an opportunity for a safe haven to be recreated” in Afghanistan.
Wray also said: “Most importantly, we are concerned that foreign terrorist organizations will be able to reconstitute, plot, inspire in a space that is much harder for us to collect intelligence and operate against than was the case previously.”
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When asked about the comments, Garland replied, “The job of the Justice Department, and the job of the FBI, is to protect against those kinds of attacks.”
Graham asked if anyone from the DOJ’s National Security Division had briefed him on the increased likelihood of an attack from Afghanistan post-withdrawal, and Garland said, “Every day, I’m briefed by the FBI,“ before being cut off. Graham asked again, and Garland said, “We are worried about the risk of attack by ISIS-K,“ before he was cut off again, with the senator pressing him for a straight answer. Garland said: “There are different views about the degrees of likelihood. That doesn’t change our posture. We will always be protective.“
The Republican senator asked if the DOJ’s posture really wasn’t changing based on an increased terrorism threat, and Garland said, “We have asked for substantial additional funds for our counterterrorism operations.” He said that “we have strengthened and increased the efforts of our Joint Terrorism Task Forces” in response to the Afghan disaster.
Charles Spencer, the FBI’s assistant director of its international operations, told the Global Security Forum earlier this month that al Qaeda successfully “played the long game” in Afghanistan and it has “made steady gains coming back, but I think they are gaining strength, and I think this [Taliban takeover] will reinvigorate them to a significant amount.” He predicted the group would have a “fairly free hand” to operate.
When asked about the plausibility of an al Qaeda attack, Spencer said, “If you’re talking a near-field target, something that’s close, whether it be U.S. personnel or a U.S. government installation, that’s a victory for them. It’s much easier to execute than going across the Atlantic and trying to hit the United States, but I definitely think that within a period of time, years, maybe a year or less, maybe years, they could easily probably project that kind of attack.”
Spencer also said the global threat from ISIS-K would likely increase, saying, “Letting several thousand of them recently released from Afghanistan from the prisons … is that going to make it grow probably significantly and make the problem worse? I think globally, as well as in Afghanistan.”
Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last month: “It’s a real possibility that in the not too distant future, six, 12, 18, 24, 36 months, that kind of time frame, for reconstitution of al Qaeda or ISIS.”
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He warned, “A reconstituted al Qaeda or ISIS with aspirations to attack the United States is a very real possibility, and those conditions to include activities in ungoverned spaces could present themselves in the next 12 to 36 months.”
