Just seven weeks before Election Day, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell holds a sizable lead in the most recent polls in Virginia — despite spending much of the past two weeks playing defense after reports surfaced of his now-infamous 1989 graduate thesis.
The sagging popularity of President Obama in the commonwealth so far has proved more critical to the campaign than McDonnell’s decades-old research paper, in which he wrote that working women were detrimental to the family and the government should favor married couples over homosexuals and “fornicators,” according to experts and poll results.
The most recent Rasmussen poll showed McDonnell with a 51 percent to 42 percent lead. An Aug. 11 Rasmussen poll had McDonnell up by the same 9 percentage points, but with more undecided voters: 47-38.
Even more dire for Deeds was the most recent SurveyUSA poll, which showed McDonnell holding a sizable 12-point lead, 54 to 42 percent. And Obama’s waning popularity in Virginia appears to be a boon to McDonnell, the report said.
“Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13 percent crossover for McDonnell, twice the number of [John] McCain voters who cross over for Deeds,” the Sept. 4 report said.
The Washington Post has published several articles on McDonnell’s 1989 thesis. On Wednesday, the Post had a front-page story on remarks McDonnell made during 2003 proceedings over the fitness of a homosexual judge who had been accused of sexual harassment, forcing the city of Hampton to pay a $64,000 settlement. News accounts at the time quoted McDonnell saying, “There is certain homosexual conduct that is a violation of the law.” McDonnell was also quoted saying, “Homosexuality is not an issue with regard to the qualifications of a judge.”
So far, the media attention to McDonnell’s past has had little effect on state polls.
Obama’s performance in the coming months may be the decisive factor in the race, said Alan Lichtman, a history professor at American University.
“In the end, I think it may well depend on what Obama does,” Lichtman said.
The scrutiny of McDonnell has changed the dynamics of the race, but not necessarily to Deeds’ advantage, some experts said.
“It’s been a very odd campaign,” said Bob Holsworth, the founder and president of Virginia Tomorrow, a company that examines trends in politics, society and business. “[Recent events have] just continued to make McDonnell the central figure in the campaign.”
Deeds pledged during the first debate not to talk about social issues, but for the past three weeks or so, that’s all he’s talked about, McDonnell said in a recent interview with Washington Examiner reporters and editors.
“If that’s what he wants to do, I think that’s a winning formula for me,” McDonnell said.
Deeds campaign spokesman Jared Leopold said his candidate would be focused on plans to create opportunities for all Virginians in the coming two months. For example, Deeds rolled out an education plan Wednesday that Leopold said would benefit students across Virginia.
“I think Creigh Deeds has the record of working across party lines … whereas his opponent does not,” Leopold said.
Holsworth said Deeds could make up the ground, but added that the Democrat had his work cut out for him.
“Deeds has time, but I think that he hasn’t had a clear message [thus far],” Holsworth said. “At this point, the campaign’s been a referendum on McDonnell. I’m not sure Deeds wins that.”
