A looming showdown over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan could test the ability of U.S. and Chinese officials to mitigate the risk of war.
“We have many differences when it comes to Taiwan,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Friday. “It would be important as part of our shared responsibility to continue to manage this in a wise way that doesn’t create the prospect for conflict.”
Chinese officials have issued a series of heated warnings against a visit by Pelosi, adding public pressure on an internal U.S. government debate that has simmered in recent weeks about whether she should make the trip. Pelosi controls her own itinerary, however, so administration officials have signaled their private opposition to a Taiwan visit while trying also to temper Beijing’s possible reactions, including through a conversation between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“President Biden underscored that our policy has not changed,” Blinken said after hosting a ministerial with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and their Japanese counterparts at the State Department. “The United States strongly opposes any unilateral efforts to change the status quo or to undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”
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That conversation followed days of speculation about whether Pelosi would cancel her plans, particularly after Biden revealed that a visit is “not a good idea right now.” Pelosi, when asked about those warnings, suggested last week that “maybe the military was afraid of my plane getting shot down or something like that.” She said Friday that she is “very excited” about traveling to the region but didn’t reveal whether she would stop in Taiwan.
“I never talk about my travel,” she said earlier this week. “It’s a danger to me.”
Other lawmakers have confirmed that she invited them to accompany her on the trip. “Any member that wants to go, should. It shows political deterrence to President Xi,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told NBC. “But she should also pay attention to the military if it’s going to cause a blowback and escalate things.”
Chinese Communist Party officials have claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since coming to power in 1949, but they have never controlled the island, which was the last stronghold of the Chinese government overthrown by the communist revolutionaries. Taiwan has developed a democratic system of governance, with a high strategic value due to its location and its centrality to the production of cutting-edge semiconductor microchips needed for advanced manufacturing.
The U.S. has played a key role in Taiwan’s history, despite cutting diplomatic ties with Taipei in favor of diplomatic relations with Beijing, by supplying Taiwan with weapons and sending signals that the American military might or might not intervene if the mainland regime were to launch an invasion.
China’s Foreign Ministry has warned that “the Chinese military will never sit idl[y] by and will certainly take strong and resolute measures” if Pelosi heads to Taiwan. Some U.S. officials reportedly think that Chinese fighter jets might try to impose a no-fly zone over Taiwan or fly over the island, which would be an unprecedented violation of Taiwanese airspace. A prominent member of Beijing’s state media apparatus asserted China’s right “to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and [any] US fighter jets” that might escort her to Taipei.
“We’ve seen no physical tangible indications of anything untoward with respect to Taiwan,” the White House National Security Council’s John Kirby told reporters Friday. “I’m not going to speak to the speaker’s travel. That is for her to speak to. As we’ve said before, nothing’s changed about our One China policy … the increased rhetoric on the Chinese side is simply not necessary.”
A prominent member of Beijing’s state media apparatus asserted China’s right “to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and [any] US fighter jets” that might escort her to Taipei. Blinken suggested that “open lines of communication on this issue, especially” between Biden and Xi, will be key to maintaining peace.
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“We believe direct communication between the leaders is the most essential aspect of meeting our responsibilities to manage issues as fraught as Taiwan in the most responsible way,” he said.
