According to the latest Department of Commerce numbers, the U.S. economy was tooling along with real GDP growth of 2.0 percent in the first quarter—somewhat less than 2017’s 2.3 percent but with prospects for improvement in the next quarter. Compared to sleepwalking 1.6 percent in 2016, the real possibility that 2018 (or even 2019) closes out somewhere around 2.8 percent is welcome news. Unless, of course, trade wars or Federal Reserve policy battles cancel out the benefits of tax cuts, regulatory reform, and low-cost natural gas.

Those clouds hovering over an otherwise-sunny outlook — trade wars, Fed interest rate policy, developments in foreign affairs that could affect the price of oil, or other unforeseen circumstances — could conceivably converge and put the economic engine in reverse. A little bad luck on the policy front and a 2019 recession isn’t out of the realm of possibility. In good times and bad, there is always some risk.