President Trump’s decision to decisively sever ties with Steve Bannon is already impacting Republican primary races.
Before this week, the prevailing perception of Bannon as Trumpism’s foremost champion made him a proxy for the president, leading GOP candidates to actively seek out his support as a way of proving their pro-Trump credentials. Once largely seen as an advantage in races where proximity to Trump is salient, candidates without his support are now casting it as a liability to undercut their opponents.
Bannon is still a being kicked around as a political football in the game of which Republican candidate is closer to the president, but this time the roles are reversed.
Same question could be asked of a lot of Senate candidates. Guys like Josh Mandel in Ohio and Kevin Nicholson in Wisconsin will be hard pressed to answer. https://t.co/cF8yPd3a6Q
— Philip Wegmann (@PhilipWegmann) January 3, 2018
For now, Bannon’s final impact on these races is unclear. But on Thursday, Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, waded into the speculation.
“I think it clarified the situation in some of these competing primaries where Mr. Bannon was out recruiting candidates who were unelectable in the general election,” he reportedly said, adding, “I think it actually is a positive development for us and we can get back to work nominating good electable candidates who can win in the general election.”
The implication of Cornyn’s take is that Bannon-backed candidates are now so hampered by this falling out, their races have been “clarified” to the point where they will almost certainly lose.
That’s possible. But it’s far from certain. Given Bannon’s recent criticisms of him, as of now it seems as though most of Trump’s ardent base is siding with the president. This could switch again.
Consider a scenario wherein Trump makes concessions to Democrats in the ongoing negotiations over the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program that upset Bannon and rankle his base. Assuming he’ll still be at the helm of Breitbart, Bannon could easily weaponize the platform in an effort to undermine the president’s decision, again winning favor with Republican primary voters frustrated with Trump.
Furthermore, in order for this development to clarify those races, voters would actually have to care. The story is interesting here in Washington, but I’m not sure enough voters outside the Acela Corridor will be casting ballots based on Bannon’s endorsement for us to consider those races “clarified” on the ground.
