With the withdrawal of British forces from the heart of Basra and an overall reduction of British forces in the south, the security situation in the largely Shiite city has come into question. Critics of the British move believe those forces have essentially surrendered the strategic city to the militias, particularly the Iranian-backed Mahdi Army. Some Iraq watchers are awaiting a showdown between the Iraqi Army, which has been moved into Basra to fill the void left by the Brits, and the Mahdi Army. IraqSlogger indicates the Iraqi Army may be preparing for such a showdown. “A major confrontation between the Iraqi Army and the powerful Mahdi Army appears to be brewing in the southern city of Basra,” IraqSlogger reported today. “‘Well-placed military sources’ in Basra have said that military forces continue to arrive in the city to reinforce the 14th Division troops (known as the Mustafa Forces) stationed at the entrance to Zubayr, outside Basra city.” Iraqi troops from the newly forming 14th Division are reported to be moving towards Basra from neighboring provinces. “All evidence points to a big deployment of Iraqi Army forces in all areas of Basra in preparation for the next battle with the Mahdi Army, including digging trenches, stockpiling ammunition, and preparing “worst-case” battle plans,” IraqSlogger reported. Both the Iraqi Army and the police deny reports that the Army is preparing to strike at al Sadr’s milita. The chief of police in Basra went on the record to deny such an operation is pending.
The Mahdi Army in Basra is certainly concerned over the rumors of an Iraqi Army operation, as well as reports of a fledgling Awakening movement being formed in the south. Muqtada al Sadr’s local office in Basra released a statement ordering its members to halt attacks and cooperate with the security forces. Sadr’s office also warned tribal leaders not to cooperate with the forming Awakening movement in the south.
The Sadrists and the Mahdi Army in Basrah are rightfully on edge. To the north in Diwaniyah, the Iraqi Army launched Operation Lion’s Leap over a week ago against the Mahdi Army. Over 130 Mahdi Fighters were captured during the operation. As DJ Elliott noted in October, Iraqi forces have been ramping up in Basrah in preparation for taking over the security file there. Elements of two divisions, plus a mechanized brigade and an infantry brigade from the Baghdad region, as well as Special Operation Forces are deployed in Basrah. It is still unclear at this time if the Iraqi Army will mount an offensive against the Mahdi Army in Basra. But “the good news is that when the push in Basra comes it is likely to be Iraqi led,” Threatswatch’s Marvin Hutchens noted yesterday.
