With three countries already on board and a host of European countries facing referenda to ratify the proposed European Constitution, one would think that the ratification process in Europhile France would be relatively simple. However, despite a majority in parliament in support of the constitution, there is increasing disenchantment on both the left and right that could derail Chirac’s plans for a successful summer referendum. Chirac cannot simply assume a oui result, as recent events and polls attest.
Perhaps most surprising is that some of the most vocal opposition to the constitution has come from the left. For the usually statist left, the proposed constitution is viewed as too liberal economically (i.e., not sufficiently dirigiste), and insufficiently attentive to “social priorities,” like France’s sacred 35-hour work week. Fueling attacks against the proposed constitution have been France’s labor unions, twenty of which have launched a campaign against the constitution, claiming that the constitution “robs” countries of the right to govern themselves. Nearly 500,000 demonstrators recently took to the streets in Paris, Marseilles, and other major cities to protest the threat to the 35-hour work week that they believe the constitution poses.
Then, last week, the 120-member Committee of General Labor Confederation (CGT), which has many members in the influential state railway company SNCF, voted against the proposed constitution, in opposition to the wishes of the CGT’s secretary-general. The CGT’s vote is symptomatic of a larger change of opinion on France’s left, captured by the fact that 56 of the leading opposition Socialist Party’s (PS) 140 deputies flouted PS chief Francois Hollande last week by abstaining from a National Assembly debate on the proposed constitution.
On the right, opposition to the constitution is being spearheaded not only by Jean-Marie LePen’s nativist National Front party, but also by proponents of French sovereignty like the conservative Philippe de Villiers. Even members of Chirac’s own Union for Popular Movement (UMP), which largely supports the constitution, has created a “Group for a confederation of the states of Europe” that opposes the proposed constitution.
But perhaps most distressingly for Chirac is the fact that two recent examples of France’s erratic voting behavior portend poorly for this summer’s referendum. The 1992 Maastricht Treaty referendum, which led to a common European currency, barely squeaked through, and most likely would not have done so if the vote had taken place only a week later. Passage of the treaty had seemed a shoo-in for then-President Francois Mitterrand, who watched the treaty eventually pass by a meager one percent. And Chirac will be the last to write off the unpredictability of France’s voters after the 2002 presidential elections, in which one in three voters went for either a far-left or far-right candidate in the first round of the presidential election, and the proto-fascist LePen maneuvered his way into the final round of the election against Chirac.
Conflicting polling data make it hard to judge current popular support of the constitution in France. While some polls show support hovering around 65 percent, others show a significant decline in support-an Ipsos poll showed support drop from 64 percent to 57 percent in December, and another showed a dip from 64 percent in the fall to 59 percent last month. A poll in France’s metro revealed only 52 percent support, with 84 percent of those polled claiming they didn’t know enough about the 300-plus page document. And it is surely not a good sign for the constitution’s supporters that a recent poll by the Journal du Dimanche showed that 46 percent of the public is still undecided as to how they will vote, with only 25 percent certain that they will vote oui.
Widespread discontent with the government, which nearly did in Mitterand’s plans for Maastricht, could also foil Chirac’s plans for the European Constitution. Chirac, who has only enjoyed widespread support among the French public when his opponent is an arch-villain like LePen in 2002 or George W. Bush in the spring of 2003, has seen popular support decline recently. Chirac’s party, the UMP, fared poorly in last summer’s regional and European elections, and Chirac became even more unpopular by supporting the difficult pension and social security reforms.
The overarching question of the future of Europe and France’s role is always contentious, and inevitably comes up when the subject is the upcoming referendum. On this front the most divisive issue may be the Turkish question. While not directly linked to this referendum, and although Chirac has promised a separate referendum whenever Turkey’s possible accession to the EU becomes imminent, no other issue regarding the future of Europe is more unpopular. Any enlargement of the EU would diminish France’s power in Europe, lead to an increase in immigrants, and make it easy for French companies to outsource their jobs to Turkey.
Despite Chirac’s support, the majority of the French public is opposed to allowing the large Muslim nation to become a part of Europe. And Chirac’s own prime minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, is opposed to Turkey’s entry. As is the newly-elected head of the UMP, Nicolas Sarkozy. Even the now-ancient Valery Giscard-d’Estaing, former French president and “founding father” of the EU Constitution, has been an outspoken opponent of Chirac’s support for Turkish membership.
Whether Chirac can settle popular restiveness on the question of Turkey’s inclusion in the EU, and can separate the Turkish issue from the matter of ratifying the constitution in the first place, will be one of Chirac’s most pressing political goals in the coming months. What is certain is that a French non to the constitution would most likely threaten the political stability of the EU and France’s standing in Europe, possibly put an end to the constitution altogether, and frustrate all attempts to rekindle French gloire any time soon.
Tim Lehmann is assistant director of the Project for the New American Century.
