Ever since Hillary Rodham Clinton’s 2008 presidential chairman Terry McAuliffe became governor of Virginia, it has been expected that the swing state would stay purple and enthusiastically back her second try for presidency.
But a new poll of Virginians released Monday is proving to be a blow to Clinton and her pal McAuliffe. According to the the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush tops her in a head to head matchup, 48 percent to 46 percent.
The Newport News, Va., school also found that other Republicans are beginning to gain on Clinton.
Hillary Clinton expected Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe to help her win the state in the 2016 presidential race. AP Photo
“Battleground Virginia will live up to its name in 2016,” said Tom Kramer, assistant director of the Wason Center. “In the face of a barrage of attacks from her real and potential Republican challengers, Hillary Clinton’s once formidable position has weakened.”
While good news for Bush, it’s another sign that Clinton is having difficulty getting to 50 percent in any matchup with a Republican, raising concerns that her support has a ceiling.
In the Virginia poll, for example, she beats other major potential Republican candidates but never gets above 49 percent. In a similar February poll, she easily topped 50 percent and beat bush 48 percent to 43 percent.
The poll also was a third one to show Florida Sen Marco Rubio picking up steam. Among Republicans he’s second to Bush, but by only one point, 17 percent to 16 percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker are next at 10 percent.
“The Republican field continues to be very fluid,” said Kramer. “While there are no break-out candidates yet, we do see a sorting taking place, with Bush and Rubio emerging as top-tier candidates, and Christie, Paul, and Walker forming a solid second-tier.”
As for Clinton’s potential opponents, none come close. She is the choice of 80 percent of Democrats followed by Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, 6 percent, and Vice President Joe Biden, 5 percent. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders tops former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, 2 percent to 1 percent.
The Wason Center survey was based on interviews with 658 registered voters, conducted April 13-24. The margin of error overall is +/- 4.6%.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
