Nearly two-thirds of Republicans reported at New Hampshire primary exit polls that impeachment benefited President Trump’s reelection odds, and only 5% said it hurt them. But an astonishing 74% of Democratic voters at the first-in-the-nation primary said that impeachment either made no difference or actually helped his chances.
Just 22% of some of the most enthusiastic Democrats in the country believe impeachment harmed Trump’s political fortunes.
Impeachment exit polls bode poorly for Democratic prospects in the general election and represent a defeat for the establishment that bet on impeachment taking Trump. The message to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her allies is clear: impeachment backfired and spectacularly so.
To an objective outsider, it was clear that three years of Mueller mania desensitized the public to the notion of impeachment. Even though the initial evidence indicating that Trump withheld congressionally approved aid to Ukraine with the specific intention of improving his odds for reelection was fairly compelling, the House rushed through the initial impeachment process, refusing to allow courts to enforce witness subpoenas and thus failing to create a coherent case for Democrats to try in the Senate impeachment trial.
Pelosi’s gambit was akin to trying to pneumonia with Neosporin. Like bacteria becoming for resistant as a result of a weak offensive, that which did not kill Trump only made him stronger.
Trump knows this, Republicans know this, and now it’s clear that the most ardent Democrats in the country know this. The only question remaining is whether the party establishment learned that as well.
