1. Players don’t rise and fall after the combine as much as stated. One scout, who used to work in the AFC, said perhaps 75 percent of teams meet just before the combine to start setting their draft board. “The goal is to have it set,” he said. Why? So they don’t get to the combine and then be swayed by how a guy does in the shuttle cones or 40-yard dash. As the scout said, the combine is mostly a fact-finding deal. Often, a player’s speed only confirms what scouts/teams have felt about a player: he’s fast or he’s slow. Certainly some guys will cost themselves money if they run a slower-than-anticipated 40-time. But consider that last year Joe Haden was supposed to have dropped out of the top 10 with a slow 40 time only to wind up going ninth overall. It’s the draft gurus who often have guys rising and falling much more than the teams themselves.
2. The combine is as much about the medical checkups and the interviews. Don’t forget, this is the first time teams will be able to talk to underclassmen – Cam Newton, for example. That’s a huge deal. The problem is sifting through the rehearsed parts of the interview. “He’ll be coached well,” the scout said. “The key for the NFL is to get him off his game and get past the coached-up part and see what he really is about.” One note about the interviews: Ryan Leaf blew off his interview with the Colts in 1998; that’s one of the reasons they went with Peyton Manning. And the medical part will be huge, too. It’s why some teams stayed away from Malcolm Kelly; even the Redskins medical staff tabbed him as a risk because of his knees. Of course, it didn’t matter.
3. If you need a quarterback, you will take a chance on Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. There will be a buyer’s beware especially with Newton because of off-field concerns. However … “He is too big and strong and plays such a critical position that someone will take him. Thing is, if he’s sitting there and you don’t have a quarterback, you don’t have another choice unless you trade for Kevin Kolb and right now you can’t trade. So the only way to get a player is through the draft. When you look how important the quarterback position is, if you don’t have one you won’t have much of a chance.”
4. Mobile quarterbacks are more important than ever. Guys like Manning and Tom Brady are rarities; QBs who rely more on getting rid of the ball quick rather than making plays after the pocket collapses. Good luck finding those guys. Instead, with teams using more exotic blitzes than ever, you’d better have an athletic QB. The Redskins have one in Donovan McNabb; but Rex Grossman is not that guy – not after some surgeries early in his career. It’s why a player such as Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett is fading – along with off-field issues. He doesn’t move well and throws poorly when he does. “He’s just awful [on the move],” the scout said. “Back in the day you could form a pocket and have a big, strong QB. That doesn’t happen anymore; the pocket moves too much and too many people are coming after him.” Gabbert is athletic and the scout last checked him out in detail last year, but said he was “impressive.”
5. Should the Redskins draft a QB? Consider what our scout says: “You know what kind of league this is; everyone else in the division has one and the Eagles have two. The Redskins have to figure out something.” There are a couple problems: one, because of the potential lockout a QB will have less practice time in the offseason and therefore less ability to make an impact as a rookie (though it’s debatable what their impact would be without a lockout considering the transition from college spread to pro-style offense). Perhaps finding one in the second round makes more sense; they likely wouldn’t play immediately anyway.
But if you want one in the first round, the other problem is, if everything checks out Gabbert and Newton could be gone by No. 10. So then it comes to defense, right? Problem is, pass-rushing OLB Von Miller likely will be gone, too; and there’s no nose tackle projected to go that high, though the scout said because they’re hard to find some of them will go higher than expected. Still, would Phil Taylor go 10th? If not, there goes the two biggest positions of need on defense. “They need an offense,” the scout said. “If one of the two receivers are there, you’d have to think of that before nose tackle…. And [Mike Shanahan] always had two good offensive tackles in Denver. But sitting there at 10, they’re far enough away that they may not get what they want.”
