Texas, the nation’s second-largest state, held its primary election Tuesday. The results, with 99 percent of precincts reporting, show a surge in Democratic turnout. But they are still disappointing for those hoping that Texas is about to turn blue this year.
In the race that attracted the most votes, 16th District El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who has been conducting a vigorous and well-financed campaign, won the Democratic nomination with 62 percent of the vote against two little-known opponents. In the Republican primary, incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, won renomination against four little-known opponents with 85 percent of the vote.
Total Republican turnout was 1,543,574, and Democratic turnout was 1,037,775. Thus, Republicans had 60 percent of the two-party vote. Texas does not have party registration, so the turnout numbers are a pretty good proxy for party support. These results look like good news for Cruz, who won his first term in 2012 by a 56 to 41 percent margin.
Some Democratic analysts have made much of the fact that Democratic turnout was up 87 percent from the 2014 primary, while Republican turnout was up only 15 percent. But the good news for Democrats is limited, for two reasons. First, the Democratic turnout surge was limited largely to central cities, and was weak elsewhere. Second, historically, Democratic turnout has advanced only to the levels of the 1990s, when Democrats were competitive in two-party races in Texas, whereas Republican turnout has tripled since then.
Here are figures for 2018 turnout and party percentage of the two-party vote in the Senate race (in which slightly more voted than in the governor race) in each of Texas’ four major metropolitan areas (as defined here) and also in what I’ve broken out as the Rio Grande Valley (El Paso County, plus 16 other counties in the Lower Rio Grande Valley: Brooks, Cameron, Dimmit, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kenedy, Kleberg, Maverick, Starr, Val Verde, Webb, Willacy, Zapata, and Zavala) and in the other 202 counties in the state. In each of the four metropolitan areas, I have set apart the major central city’s county.
| Area | Republican primary votes | Percent | Democratic primary votes | Percent |
| Texas | 1,543,574 | 60 | 1,037,775 | 40 |
| Dallas metro | 383,158 | 59 | 271,700 | 41 |
| Dallas County | 80,259 | 40 | 122,630 | 60 |
| 11 other counties | 302,899 | 67 | 149,070 | 33 |
| Houston metro | 307,607 | 58 | 219,295 | 42 |
| Harris County | 151,107 | 49 | 156,593 | 51 |
| 9 other counties | 156,500 | 71 | 62,702 | 29 |
| Austin Metro | 95,141 | 38 | 154,649 | 62 |
| Travis County | 39,031 | 26 | 112,561 | 74 |
| 4 other counties | 56,110 | 57 | 42,088 | 43 |
| San Antonio metro | 119,625 | 56 | 93,609 | 44 |
| Bexar County | 67,577 | 45 | 80,966 | 55 |
| 7 other counties | 52,048 | 80 | 12,643 | 20 |
| Rio Grande counties | 28,147 | 15 | 161,736 | 85 |
| 202 other counties | 609,896 | 82 | 136,786 | 18 |
The four central cities’ counties, plus the Lower Rio Grande Counties, produced 39 percent of the total votes cast. But they also produced 61 percent of the Democratic votes. This represents an upsurge for Democrats in the same urban, affluent, high-education neighborhoods which were historically overwhelmingly Republican and where Hillary Clinton ran sharply better than President Barack Obama.
The pattern is clear, then: Each central city county (except geographically-large Harris County, by a hair) cast more Democratic than Republican votes. But the outer counties in all four regions cast more — sometimes many more — Republican than Democratic votes. This is a pattern Karl Rove noticed about 30 years ago, and was key to the advice that enabled President George W. Bush to oust incumbent Gov. Ann Richards and former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to sweep the Senate race in 1994.
You can see the consequences in the primary results in the congressional district centered on the most upscale neighborhoods, where Democrats hope to unseat Republicans. In the 7th Congressional District (west side of Houston), 47 percent of the votes were cast for Democratic candidates, and in the 32nd district (north Dallas), 49 percent were. These look winnable for Democrats, although by no means a lock. One factor is that the first-place finisher in the primary in the 32nd and the number two finisher in the 7th, who will both feature in runoffs six weeks from now, were not the favorites of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Otherwise, the enthusiasm which propelled Democratic turnout in upscale areas does not seem to have spread very far. In an era when Democrats have lost rural and small town areas, they are still failing to carry metropolitan areas, except for San Francisco Bay-like Austin, which casts just 10 percent of the state’s votes.
What about the historical trend? Here’s a chart showing Republican and Democratic turnout in non-presidential year primaries, going back to 1994. Figures are for the governor races, except for 2018, when slightly more Texans voted in the Senate race.
| Year | Republican | Democratic |
| 2018 | 1,543,574 | 1,037,775 |
| 2014 | 1,337,875 | 554,014 |
| 2010 | 1,484,542 | 680,548 |
| 2006 | 655,919 | 508,602 |
| 2002 | 620,463 | 1,003,388 |
| 1998 | 596,839 | 492,419 |
| 1994 | 557,340 | 1,036,907 |
Yes, Republican turnout has remained at similar levels starting in 2010. And Democratic turnout is sharply up from the 2006 to 2014 primaries. But just about as many Texans were voting in Democratic primaries in 2002 and 1994 as did in 2016, even though Texas’ population has increased from 18.4 million in 1994 and 21.8 million in 2002 to 27.4 million in 2018.
Texas may be turning bluer, as it did, marginally, in the 2016 election. But it’s not yet turning blue.
