Approving a $600 million sale of MQ-9B drones to Taiwan, the Trump administration this week threw another curveball in the path of a possible Chinese invasion of the island nation.
These drones, compatible with an array of missile and sensor systems, will help the Taiwanese military to detect, deter, and defeat encroaching Chinese forces. A particular utility of the drones is that they would allow Taiwan to monitor an encroaching Chinese fleet or invasion beachhead without excessive risk to aircrews. This is an important concern in light of the People’s Liberation Army navy’s impressive air defense systems. The drones could also be deployed to carry out what otherwise might be considered suicide runs against PLA command nodes.
It’s not surprising, then, that China has reacted with outrage to the announcement. The sale, a government spokesperson said, “brutally interferes in China’s internal affairs and seriously undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests.” Beijing warned that if the weapons were actually delivered, it will retaliate against U.S. interests (in what form is not clear).
From a U.S. interest point of view, however, this sale is undeniably good news.
For a start, there’s the economic benefit of this sale in helping to sustain U.S. jobs and to support continuing benefits in terms of Taiwan’s long-term maintenance needs. Then, there’s the strategic context the sale supports. Taiwan is a democracy and a U.S. ally and an economic partner that has the right to set its own national destiny. But facing steadily increasing threats from Xi Jinping’s regime, Taiwan needs foreign support. Xi and the ruling elite believe Taiwan is a breakaway province requiring submission under Beijing rule. More than that, they see Taiwan as a stain on the Communist Party’s credibility as China’s unitary political authority and its perception abroad as a great superpower-in-waiting.
This drone sale exploits those insecurities without unleashing them. After all, these drones are just one element in an array of Trump administration sales to Taiwan. Alongside recent sales of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, radar systems, and upgraded F-16 fighter jets, the drones force China to consider the risk that any invasion might actually fail. That risk-pressure approach is the key, here, playing as it does to Xi’s insecurities. But sensible U.S. strategy also necessarily entails the avoidance of actions that would likely precipitate an invasion in and of themselves — stand out examples include a formal U.S. recognition of Taiwanese sovereignty and a secretary of state-level visit to Taipei.
Ultimately, though, whatever happens in the U.S. presidential election, this sale is in the best tradition of U.S. global leadership: supportive of democracy, predicated on defense against external aggression, and serving of the rule-of-law-based international order.
