House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy says polls showing 20 House races shifting in favor of Democrats does not faze him, noting Republicans have already gained more seats than Democrats this Congress.
The Cook Political Report late last week cited 20 House races as moving in Democrats’ favor, to varying degrees. That includes moving from “Lean R” to “Toss Up” for the reelection bids of Republican Reps. Don Bacon of Nebraska, Steve Chabot of Ohio, and Chip Roy, of Texas.
House Republicans would need to win about 19 seats in the 435-member chamber to reclaim the majority they lost in 2018 after eight years. Most analysts consider that a tall order with President Trump trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, with the White House contest able to influence many races down-ballot.
Trump, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, lags behind Biden by 9 points, which is around the Democrats’ average lead on the generic congressional ballot. McCarthy, however, told reporters Thursday he expects polls to change and pointed to other races where Republicans are faring better.
“These [polls] will continue to move as we go forward. There’s also a poll out that shows Burgess Owens leading by 9 points already in Salt Lake City. There’s reports where Maria Salazar for the third quarter has outraised Donna Shalala in a very Democratic seat [in South Florida]. So as this race goes back and forth, as the presidential numbers get tighter, I think more opportunity.”
McCarthy noted Republicans have won 6 of the 7 special House elections in the 116th Congress between 2019 and 2020, particularly the GOP had a recent pickup in the special election Rep. Mike Garcia won in California’s 25th District.
“Remember, that was an all mail-in ballot, the seat that Hillary carried by a majority, that the Democrats won by more than 9 points just a year and a half ago … so if you want any indication of rainfall, that’s the best indication,” he said. “The other thing I will tell you too. Just last week, Nancy Pelosi has now given the Republicans four more slots on committees. Why? Because Republicans now have more seats than they had at the start of this Congress.”
