In the World War II struggle for control of the Pacific, weather was everything. Storms forming over mainland China would sweep across the ocean, wreaking havoc in Japanese lanes and disrupting the advance of the American fleets. In 1944, one typhoon caught ships from the U.S. Third Fleet in the open sea, killing 778 men. Another storm damaged 33 separate craft.
Our Navy needed better weather data — and Milton “Mary” Miles delivered. After enlisting in the First World War, he earned an appointment to the Naval Academy at Annapolis. When war came again, the Navy dispatched him to China. There, Miles commanded a network of weather stations that informed the fleet of conditions on the mainland and kept watch for Japanese ships.
Today, 21st century technologies allow pilots to see at night, troops to know their exact location in trackless desert, and ships can sail with confidence in blinding fog. Yet, still, weather is everything for military operations.
And a click on the WeatherBug or a check of the Weather Channel doesn’t begin to cut it. Unlike 1944, the military needs much more data than what it can get from watching cloud formations and reading thermometers and barometers mounted on grass huts. Today, space-based assets provide vital data military weather forecasting. And therein lies the current problem.
In January, the Air Force canned the Defense Weather Satellite System. It didn’t want to. It was simply following orders from Congress, which was upset at the spiraling cost of developing a dual-support system for both civilian and military users. So after years of investing in the program, all the government has to show for it is a $40 million bill for contract termination costs.
The cancellation raises a serious question: What will the armed forces do for a next-generation of weather forecasting? Even in the near-term there are issues. A recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study concluded U.S. global weather forecasts may start showing gaps as early as 2016 or 2017. That’s when an existing weather satellite is expected to conk out — and its replacement is unlikely to be ready for launch until some time later.
As for “what next” for defense forecasting, an Air Force spokesperson recently told the press that the military was in the “early stages of the analysis process to define the requirements and plans for a new satellite system.” That’s Pentagon talk for “haven’t a clue” and “years away.”
The irony of all of this is that the watchdog congressional Government Accountability Office just last month reported that the Defense Department “was beginning to launch satellites that had long been lagging behind schedule and it had taken positive actions to instill better practices and more focused leadership for space. Progress has continued.” While the armed forces may be getting their act together, the Obama administration insists on emptying the bank account, leaving the Pentagon struggling to figure out how to make ends meet.
What’s happening with space-weather support is emblematic of exactly how a world-class military goes hollow — bit by bit, starting with the largely unseen and unglamorous (but absolutely essential) support capabilities. A military doesn’t wither overnight. It doesn’t collapse suddenly like Poland or France in 1939. It rusts away gradually, while those responsible for assuring an adequate defense look the other way — and hope the enemy isn’t paying attention.
In the end, if Washington continues to underfund our aging, over-used and increasingly worn-out military, we may end up suffering a great reversal due to mundane failings, such as dead satellites in space that can’t tell us about the storm clouds on the horizon.
Examiner Columnist James Jay Carafano is a senior research fellow for national security at the Heritage Foundation.
