Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator, has a five-point lead over his rival Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa. That’s according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University, which found Sanders with 49 percent support to Clinton’s 44 percent.
This is the first time Quinnipiac has found Sanders leading in Iowa, and it shows a significant drop in support for Clinton, who had 51 percent support to Sanders’s 40 percent in the university’s December poll.
All four Iowa polls taken of the Democratic caucuses this month have shown Clinton and Sanders within single digits of each other, sometimes with Clinton on top. But this has caused the Real Clear Politics average of polls to reach a tie between the two Democrats in Iowa. Sanders, meanwhile, continues to build on his lead in New Hampshire.
Why the surge for Sanders in Iowa? The questions below Quinnipiac’s topline provide some clues. Sanders performs much better on the questions of honesty (93 percent say he is honest and trustworthy, compared to 66 percent for Clinton) and if the candidate cares about voters’ needs and problems (96 percent say yes for Sanders, just 76 percent for Clinton). Clinton, who if elected would be the first female president, does poorly among Democratic men in Iowa relative to Sanders: Just 30 percent of men say they support her.
Other explanations could be voter apathy—one Clinton precinct captain in Davenport told me last week many of her friends who volunteered for Barack Obama in 2008 aren’t as enthusiastic about being active for Clinton this time around—or the consequences of Clinton running a boring, lethargic campaign.
