President Joe Biden’s proposed military budget cuts reduce the Air Force fleet and would install a glacial pace in reconstituting the Navy’s coffers, leaving hawkish defense analysts worried about China pulling away.
The military services briefed reporters Friday on the president’s late-arriving defense budget request of $715 billion, which Republicans heavily criticized for not keeping up with inflation or adding the necessary funds to catch up with adversaries. China is known to have a Navy that outnumbers the U.S. force of some 296 ships, and its shipbuilding capacity and military spending are more robust. Likewise, the average aircraft age in the Air Force is 30 years, but some 200 aircraft will be decommissioned according to the budget, with only about 90 will be added.
As a result, analysts think the Biden budget will face heavy pushback from Congress.
“They propose a number of divestments, mainly in the Air Force and in the Navy, but to push those divestments through Congress, it is going to take concerted leadership,” said Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The service budgets are slated for $2.8 billion in divestments of “legacy” or older systems that are expensive to maintain. The Department of Defense’s rationale is that the cutbacks allow for investments in fifth-generation aircraft and new ships more atune to the Indo-Pacific region.
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Air Force Maj. Gen. James Peccia said Friday the Air Force budget is 2.3% higher than last year at $156.3 billion, while the Space Force budget jumps by 13% to $17.4 billion.
“The focus is not only on the capabilities needed today but also those required for future competition,” he said. “Necessary risk is taken in legacy missions to enable the investment in modernization required to outpace our adversaries in the 2030 time frame.”
This comes as Space Force moves to develop new satellite technologies that are more resilient against space weapons wielded by adversaries.
“They are continuing to ramp up funding,” noted Harrison. “They actually have some procurement funding for the first time in this budget requests, so it looks like this administration, at least for now, is sticking behind this new approach to creating more resilience space architectures.”
Some $347 million will go to Space Force facility operations, sustainment, and modernization. Another $313 million will develop radar and optical space domain awareness, as well as data integration.
“They were overall winners in this request — more so than the Navy, certainly not the Army — in this budget,” Harrison added.
The Army’s budget drops $3.6 billion to $173 billion, with briefers citing lower war costs and a reorientation to modernization.
The Navy’s shipbuilding budget provides no clear path for the Battle Force 2045 shipbuilding plan to reach 500 ships, as was announced at the tail end of the Trump administration.
“The Navy’s budget was a bit of a surprise,” said American Enterprise Institute’s Mackenzie Eaglen. “Not just the small total number of ships being procured, but also the types and the profiles.”
The Navy will lose one destroyer and several aircraft in a 3% reduction to shipbuilding. Gone, too, are P-8 surveillance aircraft and Super Hornet fighters, Eaglen noted.
“The Navy and the administration walked away from what, at the end of the Trump administration, was a big rollout of the 500-ship autonomous Navy, and so that was kind of stark,” said AEI budget analyst John Ferrari.
The Navy’s budget of $211.7 billion is a $3.78 billion increase over 2021. Of that, $161.6 billion goes to the Navy and $47.9 billion to the Marine Corps.
The Navy is slated to add just eight ships, about half the ships expected from China’s growth.
“I’m not sure how the Navy does move forward, but I think the Navy needs to be embracing innovation in the near term, given how long it takes to build ships,” added Ferrari.
Adm. John Gumbleton, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy, said the purchase decisions had to do with expensive new Columbia Class nuclear submarines.
“When it comes to any budget, this was absolutely an affordability question where the goal of the department was to balance the first priority, which is investment in Colombia recapitalization,” he told Pentagon journalists Friday. “A second priority, which is to prioritize readiness to deliver a credible combat force for today.”
Harrison said there is little evidence of a Biden Navy plan in the budget released last week.
“We don’t know enough from this budget request to really get a sense for what the Biden administration is planning long-term for their shipbuilding plan,” he said.
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Eaglen praised the record research and development investments but said the budget did not connect the dots to the procurement of new systems.
“I see this budget as a failure of imagination,” she said. “That was the plan two secretaries of defense ago.”