Cities that raised their minimum wages in 2015 suffered a dropoff in restaurant job growth, according to a new analysis released Wednesday that offers an early look at some of the results of the nationwide campaign for higher wages.
In the seven major U.S. cities that implemented minimum wage hikes in 2015, restaurant employment slowed from 4.2 percent the year before to 1.6 percent, even as it accelerated in other parts of the states in which the cities are located, according to the American Action Forum, a right-of-center think tank in Washington.
“It’s clearly still early in all this and these minimum wages are still being implemented,” said Ben Gitis, the report’s author. “But right now it’s clear that, consistently, these minimum wage wages increases could be having an impact on restaurant employment.”
The analysis examined the restaurant industry because it accounts for roughly half of all minimum wage workers. “If there are negative employment impacts from raising the pay floor, you’d likely find it in the restaurant industry.”
The cities included Chicago, Louisville, Seattle, Washington, Oakland, San Francisco and San Jose, all of which raise their local minimum wages in 2015, to between $7.75 in Louisville to $12.25 in Oakland and San Francisco. The federal minimum wage is $7.25.
A campaign organized under the tagline “Fight for $15” has pushed for cities and states to raise their minimum wages to as high as $15. Seattle and San Francisco are scheduled to hit that level starting in 2018.
The Obama administration, which favors a $12 federal minimum wage phased in by 2020, has also backed efforts to raise wage floors in cities and states.
Congressional Republicans have opposed President Obama’s proposals to raise the minimum wage level, arguing that doing so would lead to job losses.
Whether or not small minimum wage hikes lead to wage losses, however, has remained a controversial topic among researchers.