In one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of presidential primaries, Joe Biden is now the undisputed leader of the Democratic nomination, with his main competitor, Bernie Sanders, having little chance of catching up on delegates.
The former vice president’s win in Michigan, called shortly after all polls closed, solidifies him as the presumptive nominee and demonstrates his ability to build a broad coalition of working-class, suburban, and minority voters in Midwest states once favorable to Sanders. The final margin of Biden’s victory has yet to be decided because of the high number of early ballots, but it was decisive enough for the race to be called by 9 p.m. Tuesday.
As early votes began streaming in from Michigan which showed Biden holding a commanding lead in districts where Sanders won in 2016, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, a prominent Biden supporter, said it was time to “shut this primary down” and called for the Democratic National Committee to “step in” and cancel future debates. The next debate, which would be the first time Sanders and Biden would face-off alone, is scheduled for Sunday.
Michigan was Sanders’s political firewall, particularly after his lead in California shrunk considerably as more early votes were counted. In 2016, Sanders narrowly won the state in a surprise upset against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and gave him the ammunition to extend the primary for several months, despite Clinton’s superdelegate lead that almost always assured she’d be the eventual nominee.
In states such as Mississippi, Sanders barely put up a fight against Biden’s wave of black support. And in Missouri, a state Sanders narrowly lost in 2016, Biden outperformed Clinton by double-digits. According to exit polls, Sanders’s black support actually diminished in the state.
Sanders has now won far fewer states than during his first White House bid, meaning his path to victory has essentially ended. Biden’s delegate lead will now extend into the hundreds, and the map only gets more unfavorable to Sanders throughout March and the spring.
Moreover, Sanders’s performance in Michigan’s largely white districts means it’s unlikely there will be any upset victories down the primary calendar. Later this month, delegate-rich states such as Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio all hold their primaries. Recent polls from a number of these states indicate that Biden could sweep all of them.
The president of Priorities USA, one of the country’s largest liberal advocacy groups, called Biden the presumptive nominee on Tuesday night as well.
“The math is now clear. Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee for President and @prioritiesUSA is going to do everything we can to help him defeat Donald Trump in November,” tweeted Guy Cecil. “I hope others will join us in the fight.”
The odds of a contested convention, long the dream of political pundits, have also shrunk considerably. At his current rate, Biden will secure enough delegates to win the nomination by late spring.
The momentum towards Biden was clear after his resounding victory in South Carolina and the dramatic wave of support from elected officials and former 2020 candidates. His wins in states such as Maine, Massachusetts, and Minnesota meant he was able to earn the support of white voters in areas generally favorable to Sanders.
And in states such as Virginia and North Carolina, Sanders’s electoral vulnerability with black voters was on full display. Despite his campaign’s outreach to various minority groups, with the exception of Nevada, he was unable to improve on his 2016 margins.
Even before Tuesday, it became increasingly apparent that the GOP had decided Biden would be the Democratic nominee. Senate Republicans have indicated that they will continue investigating Biden’s son, Hunter, over his connections to the Ukrainian gas company Burisma. President Trump, over Twitter, has also attacked Biden’s alleged unfitness for office because of concerns over his mental state.
