President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden have arrived in the U.S. Virgin Islands for their traditional weeklong beach break before a busy new year.
But St. Croix doubles as the picturesque backdrop where Biden considers whether to run for reelection, even as Democrats encourage him to delay any announcement.
BIDEN HOSTS ZELENSKY BEFORE DEMOCRATS HAND OVER HOUSE CONTROL TO REPUBLICANS
Biden can and should take his time considering a reelection campaign and a potential announcement, according to attorney and former aide to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Christopher Hahn.
“Most Americans think the presidential election starts way too early,” the Aggressive Progressive podcast host told the Washington Examiner. “A decision by early March is completely appropriate and in line with most modern incumbents. Should he choose not to run, others have all the time they need to mount a campaign.”
Middlebury College political science professor Bertram Johnson agreed with Hahn’s “early spring” time frame, although he conceded that internal deliberations conclude sooner. Biden, himself, previewed, “it would be early next year we make that judgment” during his post-midterms press conference.
“Fundraising and anti-coordination rules become stricter once you officially announce, so it is at least legally advantageous to delay the official paperwork at this stage,” Johnson said. “My sense is that after the 2022 elections, Biden’s hand has been strengthened with the Democrats in Congress and nationally, so he may have more freedom to decide at his own pace as a result.”
Biden announcing a 2024 campaign at the outset of 2023 “seems a bit early,” compared to many of his predecessors, presidential historian David Pietrusza echoed.
“Three presidents bowed out fairly late,” the prolific author said. “[Calvin] Coolidge on August 3, 1927, [Harry] Truman [on March 29, 1952] after the New Hampshire primary. [Lyndon Johnson] on March 31, 1968.”
Biden has insisted it is his and his family’s “intention” to contest for the White House again. But if Biden decides against seeking a second term, he should postpone that announcement, too, to avoid appearing like a so-called “lame duck” president, Pietrusza advised.
“[Theodore Roosevelt] announced he wasn’t running again in 1908 on election night 1904,” he added. “Big mistake.”
But Hahn disagreed, given that Republicans are retaking the House, although with only a four-seat majority, the narrowest since then-Speaker John Garner’s in 1931. Democrats maintain control of the Senate.
“As for Congress working with him, his decision to run will have limited impact,” Hahn said. “There will be little to no cooperation from the House, but he will have very little trouble getting his appointments, judicial or otherwise, through the Senate.”
The Bidens are likely to consider House Republicans and the broader conservative echo chamber, as the House GOP prepares to investigate Biden’s administration and family, namely first son Hunter Biden amid his laptop scandal. Attorney General Merrick Garland and the Justice Department are also poised to be assessed, as the DOJ, in turn, inquires into the younger Biden’s taxes and foreign business interests.
Ian Sams was tapped as a White House spokesman last spring to specifically respond to the coming congressional oversight. Hunter Biden has retained attorney Abbe Lowell as legal counsel. Lowell has previously represented former President Bill Clinton, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), and even former President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and confidant Jared Kushner.
Joe Biden’s age and health is set to be another factor. At 80, the country’s oldest-ever president has downplayed concerns regarding his age and health by imploring people to “watch” him as he, for example, jogs up steps or toward a microphone. Aside from his tendency to misspeak, his most obvious possible complaint has been a persistent cough, but that has improved since his two COVID-19 diagnoses last summer.
During the Thanksgiving break, Biden disclosed to reporters that “part” of his yearly physical examination by White House doctor Kevin O’Connor had been “already done” and it would be completed “before the end of the year.” But press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has not provided any more details related to the medical check-up.
“The president is in good health and maintains an active lifestyle, as his doctors have said,” Jean-Pierre said this month. “He will have a physical in the upcoming months, and the results will be released like they were most recently, in the same way. We will be transparent.”
Jill Biden, who was against her husband running in 2004 and 2016 for different reasons, has become a closely-watched indicator as his decision-making process unfolds. The first lady has said privately she is “all in” for a prospective 2024 bid, despite expressing reservations last fall, according to CNN. She told French President Emmanuel Macron her husband is “absolutely” serious about reelection as well, according to the New York Times.
Public polling suggesting Biden should become the “bridge” to other Democratic leaders he pledged to be on the 2020 campaign trail is one more contemplation. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted this month found 50% of respondents believe a president should ideally be aged between 51 and 65 years. A CNN poll fielded a week earlier found almost 60% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would prefer a 2024 nominee other than Biden, though a majority would still support him if he were to be the party’s standard-bearer. Biden has an average 2 percentage point lead on Trump in very early polls, 44% to 42%, according to RealClearPolitics.
White House holiday events have been a convenient opportunity for Biden to reconnect with donors. But as the political chattering class awaits his decision, Biden allies have started 2024 planning, including proposing a helpful primary calendar to the Democratic National Committee and implementing an expanded digital strategy, according to the Washington Post. Simultaneously, staffers have begun underscoring the president’s record and criticizing Republicans more forcefully.
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White House spokesman Andrew Bates, for instance, has contended Biden has exceeded his campaign promise “to reach across the aisle,” citing some of the 200-odd bipartisan bills he has signed into law during his first two years in office.
“He goes into the new year with his hand outstretched to both parties in Congress, ready to keep putting country ahead of party and staying steadfastly focused on the needs of American families above all else,” Bates said last week. “He wants to keep working together on cutting costs, bringing more jobs back from overseas, saving more lives from gun violence, and keeping the American people safe.”
