It appears that Tuesday’s explosion at a FedEx sorting facility is linked to the previous four explosions that have afflicted Austin, Texas since March 2. If so, that means the bomber has five explosions under his or her belt in under three weeks, with more expected to follow.
So why is the Austin bomber proving so hard to capture? After all, considering the vast resources of the federal government; including hundreds of federal agents acting with counter-terrorism investigative authorities, many observers might have expected the culprit to have been found by now.
Unfortunately, however, this isn’t an hour-long television show. Instead, whoever is responsible here has likely been preparing this attack for a long time and has clearly taken specific steps to evade detection.
It is probable, for example, that the bomb maker has a military or other explosives-profession background. That all the devices appear to have detonated successfully (if prematurely in the fifth case) and to lethal effect in four cases, indicates a skilled bomb builder.
This bears consideration because in many terrorism-related cases, devices fail to fully detonate or detonate while being constructed. This is true even where an individual possesses specific instructions on how to construct a viable device. The suggestion of professional experience with explosives also finds credibility in two other factors: the use of a trip wire-based initiator on at least one device, and the apparent use of parts and explosives that are hard to trace to specific sources.
While the FBI and ATF will have means to trace some of the materials back to the suspect, his/her precautions and the time lapsed since the first explosion indicate that tracing may take weeks instead of days.
Still, it’s also concerning that the attacker’s tactics seem to be varied and his/her strategy focused on a high-tempo desire to cause maximum fear. The absence of an obvious grudge or specific target set means that if the suspect is not on the government’s counter-terrorism radar (and we should assume based on the scale of the investigative effort and the time now elapsed since the first explosions that he/she is not), positive identification will be especially challenging.
That said, the targeting focus on random residents across the city of Austin does help investigators in two ways. That’s because it suggests the attacker either has some kind of particular hatred for Austin (investigators will be trawling through any threats to the local government and looking at vehement protesters on recent issues of local politics), or that he/she is a resident of the local area.
Ultimately, however, the investigation’s best hope is likely to rest with the FBI’s behavioral analysis unit. Having access to all the various pieces of evidence that are collected, the agents and analysts will attempt to develop a suspect profile on the attacker/s. And leaving new evidence with attack, the suspect will come closer to capture.
