A new poll gives Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley a nine-point lead over former Gov. Bob Ehrlich in a potential 2010 rematch of the last gubernatorial race.
The poll, conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies in Annapolis, found that 48 percent of those surveyed would vote for O’Malley, a Democrat, and 39 percent would vote for the Republican Ehrlich.
The poll shows a narrowing of the margin between the two since September, when O’Malley topped Ehrlich 49 to 38.
Ehrlich hasn’t indicated if he plans to run this year, saying his potential candidacy depends on whether he has a legitimate chance of winning. He lost to O’Malley by 6.5 points in 2006.
Tuesday’s Republican upset victory in Massachusetts, which like Maryland is a traditionally Democratic state, should “embolden” Ehrlich, said Ronald Walters, government professor emeritus at the University of Maryland.
Gonzales’ poll showing O’Malley’s approval rate at 46 percent is also a good sign for Ehrlich, said Tom Schaller, political science professor at the University of Maryland Baltimore County, who added that no incumbent with an approval rate under 50 percent is “ever safe.”
But Schaller added that the poll numbers are in the middle of the “not too sure zone” and don’t provide clear answers to what November’s outcome might be.
Schaller added that if Ehrlich is looking to out-of-state races for indications on whether he should run, the Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey in November were better predictors than the Senate race in Massachusetts.
“Ehrlich really needs to make a decision pretty soon or it is going to be too late,” Schaller said.
O’Malley has more than $5.7 million in the bank for his re-election campaign and raised more than $4.8 million last year, according to his campaign.
The poll showed that Ehrlich has the support of 16 percent of registered Democrats, who outnumber Republicans in Maryland by 2-1. He captured 30 percent of the Democratic vote when he won in 2002.
The majority of those surveyed said that the economy is the most important issue Maryland is currently facing. Of that group, O’Malley topped Ehrlich by 3 percent.
The poll also found a sharp drop in President Obama’s approval rating, dropping from 80 percent a year ago to 56 percent this year.
The poll has a 3.5 percent margin of error.
