Donald Trump supporters have been touting the many recent polls that ask Republican voters whether the candidate who has the “most” delegates should be nominated. In every instance I have seen, a large majority answer yes. But the term “most” is ambiguous in this context. “Most” usually means a majority, which in the Republican National Convention means 1,237 delegates — a majority of the 2,472 chosen. But the wording suggests that “most” here means more than any other candidate, but not necessarily a majority, since a candidate with an actual majority would be nominated. The responses are in line with Trump’s repeated declarations that he has a moral entitlement to the nomination even if he has won fewer than 1,237 delegates.
A better and more revealing question was asked in a CBS/YouGov poll in Indiana. “As you may know, the Republican party requires a nominee to get 1,237 delegates in the primaries for the nomination. If Donald Trump does not get 1,237, but Trump still has more delegates than Ted Cruz, and more delegates than John Kasich, what do you feel Republicans should do at the convention this summer?”
The responses: 47 percent said “Select Trump, because he’ll still have more delegates than any other candidate,” 45 percent said “Let Trump, Cruz and Kasich fight for delegate support at the convention to decide the winner” and 8 percent said “Turn to someone new who isn’t running right now.”
In other words, when the situation is explained more realistically, Republicans in Indiana are about evenly divided, in a poll in which 40 percent said they would vote for Trump, 35 percent for Cruz and 20 percent for Kasich. Which is to say, on this process issue Trump’s position gets more support than Trump himself, but not a whole lot more and not anything like a large majority. (I leave aside for the cavil that the question should have said “primaries or caucuses” rather than just “primaries.”) It suggests that if a convention majority selects someone other than Trump, some significant number of Republicans will consider that unfair but about the same number will consider it fair. Which will almost certainly be the case whatever the convention’s decision if Trump ends up after the June 7 primaries visibly short of the 1,237-delegate majority. Either way, the party will pay something of a price — but that’s going to be the case whatever happens.
Bottom line: Many Republicans reject Trump’s contention that “most” means “more than anyone else.”
