President Trump’s Syria envoy laid out a sobering assessment of how the eight-year “awful war” there is “basically frozen” and would likely end in stalemate.
“We’ll probably, if experience is any guide, see several other pathetic, sorry, and much-broken ceasefires that will eventually slow down the conflict. That, for us, is what victory looks like in this awful war,” James Jeffrey, State Department special representative for Syria, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
He said the destruction of the ISIS caliphate had not put an end to the terrorist group, which remained “quite active” in Syrian territory beyond the reach of the U.S.-led coalition.
“We’re watching that very closely,” he said. “We have a very active program of going after them wherever they are. I would say in excess of 10,000 ISIS fighters who are now operating clandestinely between Syria and Iraq, and frankly they go back and forth without a whole lot of problem crossing that very porous border.”
He said Syrian dictator Bashar Assad had difficulty controlling territory, even where Russian and Iranian military support has allowed him to defeat most of the rebel opposition.
“We have seen very little capability of the Assad regime to defeat ISIS, militarily,” Jeffrey said. “And Assad’s policies to his own population are the main accelerant to recruiting for ISIS throughout that country.”
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Those criticisms of Assad dovetailed with congressional warnings that President Trump should not withdraw U.S. forces from Syria. The president surprised his national security team and allies in December by ordering an abrupt drawdown of the roughly 2,000 U.S. special forces operators in the country at the time. Trump subsequently agreed to leave part of that force in place, though not before Defense Secretary Jim Mattis resigned in the midst of a dispute over the withdrawal.
“American presence is absolutely essential in Syria,” Texas Rep. Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee, told Jeffrey. “I think a complete withdrawal — we saw what happened when we did that in Iraq. We should learn from our mistakes in history. It would only create a power vacuum which will then create more chaos and destruction.”
Jeffrey appeared before the committee amid widespread congressional concern that U.S. adversaries have seized the initiative in the Syria crisis. Assad, with the support of Russia, has renewed attacks on a key region populated by terrorist affiliates, opposition remnants, and millions of civilians. And Iranian ground forces have deployed across southern Syria in a way that allows them to threaten Israel while freeing Assad to focus on the new fighting.
He said Trump’s strategy was “broadly consistent” with the concerns raised by the lawmakers. That plan entails diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions — most notably, refusing to help rebuild Syrian cities destroyed during Assad’s fight to regain control of the country — that would force the regime to agree to “free and fair elections” under the administration of the United Nations.
“Is this a perfect policy — can I promise an election in two years, and an end to this?” Jeffrey said. “No, but I can promise that we and all of the people I’m talking to throughout the Middle East and Europe are pretty much committed to keeping the pressure on.”
In the meantime, he agreed on the need for an enduring U.S. military presence in northeast Syria to prevent a resurgence of ISIS there.
“In the long run we are planning on leaving there, [but] for the moment we are keeping a residual force,” he said. “That’s in response to concerns of our allies and partners and a response quite frankly [to] concerns from the U.S. Congress. We adjusted the policy a bit and we’ll continue to listen to both you and people around the world who are working with us in this collective effort, because there is agreement on the end state to try to do the best job we can.”
