Wharton budget model predicts bipartisan infrastructure bust

Thanks to fake pay-fors and higher deficits, a Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania budget model of the Senate infrastructure bill found the legislation would “have no significant effect” on the economy through 2031.

“Unlike the infrastructure compromise outlined in June,” the report says, “we estimate that this bill would increase government debt by 2050. Even with current government borrowing rates being at historical low values, higher government debt mitigates the positive impact of public investment, as U.S. and international savings are diverted from private capital investment toward public debt.”

The Wharton model is particularly skeptical of the pay-fors in the bill, many of which, the report notes, end up adding to the debt anyway:

The $258 billion in revenue from “unused” funds—COVID and Unemployment Insurance—add to the debt relative to the baseline in which the funds were not spent and thus return to the Treasury. In addition, the announced deal allocates revenues from the sale of spectrum and oil totaling $93 billion. Proceeds from spectrum sales are slated to go to the U.S. Treasury, so this revenue source does not significantly change the government’s budget relative to the baseline. Furthermore, we assume that the strategic petroleum reserve will be restocked to its baseline value at some point in the future. Therefore, applying these sources of funding to infrastructure aid effectively adds to government debt.

Usually, the Congressional Budget Office offers its own score of a spending bill before it is voted on, but Senate Democrats and their Republican allies seem determined to move so quickly on this bill that the CBO score will not be available before final passage.

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