Senate Republicans face some tough electoral sledding in 2008. Right now the big question is not if the GOP numbers will fall below 49, but by how much. Rasmussen regularly conducts state level polling and the landscape looks increasingly challenging for Republicans. It starts with one open seat (Virginia) all but lost–“the best thing I can say about it is we won’t have to spend any money there,” a Republican strategist told me (ouch!). Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner holds a double-digit lead over another former Governor Republican Jim Gilmore. Many Republican strategists openly worry that if Warner thumps Gilmore too badly, it could jeopardize McCain’s chance of winning the state. Polling in New Mexico–another open seat due to the retirement of Republican Senator Pete Domenici–also shows Republicans losing ground. Both potential GOP challengers–Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce–trail by double digits against Democratic Rep. Tom Udall. Colorado is a third challenging open seat where Democrat Mark Udall is in a tight race with former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer. Several incumbents also face stiff challenges based on the Rasmussen polling. Republican incumbent John Sununu trails former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen 49%-41% in this March 21 Rasmussen survey. Republican incumbent Ted Stevens in a dead heat against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. And Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is under 50 percent against comedian Al Franken. Unbelievable? Keep in mind Minnesotans also chose former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura as their Governor. Republicans only real chance for a pick-up was in Louisiana, where incumbent Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu faced a potentially still challenge from former state treasurer John Kennedy (a Democrat who changed parties last year). But this Rasmussen poll today shows Landrieu holding a comfortable 55%-39% lead. Two bright spots for the GOP are Oregon and Maine. Incumbents in both states–Sen. Gordon Smith (OR) and Sen. Susan Collins (ME)–were high on the Democratic party’s hit list. But both incumbents–particularly Collins–are doing well in the Rasmussen surveys. By my count, a best-case scenario looks like a net loss of one seat, leaving the GOP with 48 Senators in January of 2009. Worst case could be a loss of about 6 seats, which would mean 43 Republicans. Not great, but still enough to conduct a two year long filibuster!
