Where » Lucas Oil Stadium • When » Monday, 9:21 p.m. • TV » CBS
Keys to a Duke victory
1. Continued solid execution on offense » A second straight game with only six turnovers will be difficult for the Blue Devils to accomplish against a solid Butler defense and a heavily partisan crowd urging on the hometown favorite. The Bulldogs have slowed down every team they’ve played in the tournament, so patience will be essential.
2. Dominance inside the paint » Duke’s Big Three — Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith — buried West Virginia on the scoresheet. But Brian Zoubek’s 10 rebounds (five offensive) were just as important. The senior 7-footer and his teammates need to stay composed facing a Butler frontcourt that is undersized but smart and fiercely competitive.
Keys to a Butler victory
1. It’s not just the rebounds but the points that come as a result » There’s no shot more demoralizing than a wide-open 3-pointer on a kick out following an offensive rebound. The Bulldogs must balance their attempt to control the defensive glass with tracking Smith and Scheyer on the perimeter after Duke’s initial shot goes up.
2. Get Gordon Hayward going » Who would’ve thought that Hayward would be the most intriguing NBA prospect left in this year’s NCAA Tournament? The embodiment of the Hoosier State’s unique basketball history and fanaticism, the super 6-foot-9 sophomore is a game-changer at both ends. He needs to inspire both his teammates and the Lucas Oil Stadium crowd.
Key matchups
Nolan Smith • Duke • G » Smith has hit eight 3-pointers in the last two games, but his decisions with the ball have been just as impressive.
vs.
Shelvin Mack • Butler • G » Mack scored 14 points vs. Michigan State despite battling dehydration. He can’t afford to miss key minutes again.
Brian Zoubek • Duke • C » Zoubek is averaging 11.5 boards in his last four NCAA games. He matched a season high with three assists vs. West Virginia.
vs.
Matt Howard • Butler • F » Butler desperately needs the foul-prone center to play — after his concussion vs. Michigan State — and play well.
Kyle Singler • Duke • F » Against WVU, Singler bounced back from an 0-for-10 showing vs. Baylor by scoring at least 20 points for the sixth time in nine games.
vs.
Gordon Hayward • Butler • G/F » Hayward’s size advantage and outside shooting will be put to the test by aggressive defensive looks from the Blue Devils.
State of the teams
DUKE » For the last time, stop saying the Blue Devils aren’t good enough. There isn’t a win in this tournament the Blue Devils haven’t deserved. Duke is playing with the poise of a group that welcomes its status as the favorite and the emotion of an us-against-the-world underdog. The combination is as formidable as a Big Three playing their best basketball of the year at exactly the right time.
BUTLER » For the last time, stop calling the Bulldogs a Cinderella team. They’ve won 25 straight games, and they’re playing fantastic defense — the last team to hold this many NCAA opponents in a row under 60 points was Villanova en route to the 1985 national championship. The health of Mack and Howard remains a glaring question, but the hometown support won’t be in doubt Monday night.
Examiner predicts
A short drive from Hinkle Fieldhouse, the site of the final scene in “Hoosiers,” another movie-style ending is in store. How could it not be with 33-year-old Indiana native and third-year coach Brad Stevens facing 63-year-old Mike Krzyzewski, who’ll man the sidelines of his eighth NCAA final? On the court, the surprising heroes also will be of the hometown variety because the 2010 NCAAs have been about drama and defense. Butler, despite Duke’s overflowing talent, simply has too much of both.
Butler, 61-59
