Save for a few blips in both directions, former Vice President Joe Biden spent all of 2019 dominating the Democratic presidential primary with about 30% of the vote in national polls. His support hasn’t flamed out, and his competitors’ cash has only grown, increasing the odds that no candidate will complete the primary season with a majority of delegates. The result would be the ever-elusive contested convention that political nerds have dreamed of for decades.
Unlike the 2016 Republican primaries, Democrats have no winner-take-all states. In most states, often subdivided into congressional districts, candidates just have to earn at least 15% of the primary vote to obtain pledged delegates. Whereas President Trump could clean up the overwhelming majority of delegates without a majority of the popular vote in the 2016 Republican primary, candidates earning at least 15% in enough districts could hold out hope that no competitor takes a majority of the total delegates.
Looking at the astounding fundraising numbers of the fourth quarter of 2019, it looks increasingly possible that there will be no presumptive nominee by the time the Democratic National Convention starts in July.
Bernie Sanders announced that he pulled in a whopping $34.5 million in donations to his presidential campaign, the most of any Democrat yet. At an impressive $24.7 million, Pete Buttigieg nearly matched his own third-quarter fundraising. Trailing closely behind is Andrew Yang, who catapulted from $10 million in fundraising in the third quarter to $16.5 million in the fourth. With $22.7 million earned since October, front-runner Joe Biden posted his best quarter yet.
Noticeably absent from the recent spate of announcements is Elizabeth Warren, whose fundraising likely fell to about $20 million.
With an intractable 30% of national primary polling support, Biden doesn’t need much cash to stay viable in the race. But everyone else does, and every other candidate polling in the double digits has it. If a Buttigieg or a Yang were running in the winner-take-all primary of the Republicans in 2016 or the relatively small field of the Democrats in 2008 or 2016, they would have no incentive to stay in the race, even if they had the cash. But if they can compile tens of millions of dollars of cash on hand and delegates throughout districts, they can bet that Biden, Sanders, and Warren will simply split a majority of support.
In terms of possibly winning the nomination, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar (unless she bombs in Iowa) have no incentive to leave the primary. Yang has the cash to stay, and he and Tulsi Gabbard have the national clout to continue to earn. Billionaires Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer have bankrolled their own joyrides.
Cory Booker is failing nationally but still has ample promise as a Cabinet appointee or running mate, making him the only candidate with any incentive to bow out before the race gets ugly. He would thus earn the goodwill of the eventual nominee and could earn even more if he endorses the winner.
As for everyone else, that makes nine candidates who will likely stay in the fight deep into primary season. Unless Biden or Sanders manage to clean up the early states, it’s becoming more and more likely that no single candidate will reach a majority before the convention, and a contested convention is the result.
