Democratic candidates have significantly more cash on hand heading into the last months before the midterm elections than their Republican counterparts, suggesting November’s red wave may not be as assured as Republicans have hoped.
Of all the money stashed in war chests for congressional candidates through the second quarter of 2022, Democratic candidates accounted for 57% of the $1.2 billion cash, while Republicans accounted for 43%, Federal Election Commission filings shared with the Washington Examiner reveal. This widens the first-quarter gap from earlier this year, when Republicans held 46% of the cash on hand and Democrats had 54%.
REPUBLICANS SHATTER RECORDS FOR CANDIDATE FILINGS AHEAD OF MIDTERM ELECTIONS
This money disadvantage is wider in House races, with Republican candidates owning 41% of the total $803 million cash on hand and the Democrats holding 59%. Though the disparity shrank on the Senate side, with Republican candidates holding 47% of the $383 million total cash on hand and Democrats 53%, this is a reversal of the first quarter, in which Republicans held a 2-point lead in this metric.
“If I was a Republican, I’d be worried as hell,” Democratic campaign strategist and former Biden campaign surrogate Kevin Walling told the Washington Examiner. “Democrats traditionally do a much better job with allied organizations spending on their behalf, so not only are Republicans facing a wave of candidate money, they’re also going to have a barrage of spending from labor, women’s rights, and pro-immigration organizations flood airwaves this fall. This, coupled with the results from the abortion rights vote in Kansas, does not bode well for the GOP.”
Republicans have a record-breaking number of candidates this cycle, signaling enthusiasm and optimism on the GOP side. Historically, the side with a lopsided number of candidates may have an advantage, but crowded fields can also come with pitfalls.
“There may have been more Republican candidates who have filed for office, but that hits threefold: One, it divides resources; two, it makes for bitter primaries that make it harder for candidates to coalesce around the nominee; and three, it dilutes the field, allowing far-right candidates such as Kari Lake (R-AZ), John Gibbs (R-MI), Doug Mastriano (R-PA), and others to win with a plurality of votes even though they’re weaker general election candidates,” Walling said.
“Ultra-MAGA” nominees don’t entice Democratic and independent voters, Walling continued, and these voters “clearly see the stakes in this election and are willing to open their wallets in large sums to block extreme Republican candidates who want to make Jan. 6, 2021, every day in America.”
The Federal Election Commission data shared with the Washington Examiner show a total of 2,582 candidates filed for House and Senate offices in the 2022 midterm elections, raising a combined $2.4 billion for their individual campaign accounts. Republicans have kept pace in overall fundraising by raising nearly half of that total, but they’ve had to spend more, which means fewer dollars in the bank compared to Democrats heading into the November election.
Though money talks, it isn’t everything. The broader political landscape shows voters reeling from inflation, and President Joe Biden’s popularity is plummeting, even among his base. Republicans are confident that kitchen table issues will carry them to a majority, at least in the House.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“All the money in the world can’t spare Democrats from being held responsible for creating the highest inflation in four decades and an economic recession,” said Michael McAdams, communications director for the National Republican Campaign Committee.
The Democratic fundraising machine has been very successful, especially since President Donald Trump was elected in 2016.
“I think many Republican candidates, even if strongly outraised, are basically doing fine on the money front, and outside spending can help level the playing field,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “The GOP is not replicating the Democrats’ ‘green wave’ from 2018, but that doesn’t mean they can’t have a successful election.”
