Redskins mailbag: Ask John

John: Maybe this is too late and a keeper for next week, but apart from the randomness of Good Rex/Bad Rex, do you notice a difference (or is there a statistical one) between 1st half Rex and 2nd half Rex?  I know that the first half vs. Arizona didn’t follow the pattern, but his decision-making seems worse in the second half. More gun-slinging, checking down less often. Doesn’t seem like physical conditioning as much as mental focus. 

Thanks,

Steve

Steve: Here are his passer ratings by quarter: 63.5; 88.4; 96.9 and 72.4. So he starts poorly and ends poorly, which is about right. And when leading in a game, he’s completed just 24 of 51 passes for one touchdown and three interceptions and a rating of 46.9. It’s not a big enough sample size to draw grand conclusions just yet. But the point is: He’s inconsistent. That hasn’t changed in years.

JK

John: I have read a couple of articles that indicate Rocky Mcintosh is having a “break out” season and should have a good/great based on his first 4 games. Do you agree?

How much of an upgrade will Phillip Buchanan provide at this point?

How is Jarvis Jenkins recovering and how much of a set-back will losing his rookie season have on him. I know you like this guy and was wondering, if his recovery goes good, is there any silver lining for him being on the sidelines now for when he returns next year?

How good of a pass catching receiver can Niles Paul be? It sounds like he is already a solid member of the team and have heard/read comparisons to James Thrash. I liked Thrash, but he wasn’t a playoff caliber receiver and as you pointed out today, apparently Hankerson is still a work in progress. How might this play out this season?

Ryan Kerrigan looks great, but he is a Snyder Era (sans Cerrato of course, but still) rookie. What should I expect to derail him at this point?   Sorry, but the Snyder Era has been tough.

Sorry for all the questions, if you can answer any I would be appreciative.

Also, keep up the great work, you are the best source of reliable Redskins information I have found in the last 12 years and maybe ever.

I have to ask one more question: I know the Skins can beat the Eagles next weekend, but do not think they will. Our offense will likely not improve significantly this year, in my opinion, and our defense, which I even liked last year compared (despite their ranking) to previous years is going to face a different animal than they have faced this year. How ugly could this get? Or do think this could be a break-out game for us?

Thanks,

Charlie C

Charlie: Man, lots of questions. Love it. Coffee drinker? But glad to answer all of them. So here we go: A breakout season for Rocky? Not sure I’d go that far but a better one? Absolutely. Looks more comfortable with his assignments.

2: Buchanon played well last year in this role, but he played in only one preseason game, has a bum shoulder and missed four games. Could take a while. When he’s right, yes he’s an upgrade over Kevin Barnes.

3. Haven’t talked to or about Jarvis in a couple weeks. If I did, this is what I’d hear: his recovery is going well. Same thing is said about every injured guy. As far as silver lining, that’s up to the individual and what he gets out of this season. Just being on the sideline won’t matter if you’re not in the meeting rooms, etc. If anyone can get something out of this year it’s a guy like Jenkins. Also, when looking to 2012, it’s good that he won’t have to spend all of the offseason rehabbing his knee. He’ll be able to strengthen as well so that’ll help him next summer. But it’s still a lost year. I don’t know how this year will impact him for next season. We’ll have to find out. It’s a shame; he would have been their best D-linemen by season’s end or sooner.

4. Not sold on Paul as anything more than a fourth receiver. Haven’t seen evidence to the contrary yet. But love him as a part of a team because of how he works and his on-field attitude. Hankerson will have a tough time getting on the field, but eventually they need him to play.

5. Ha, I think Kerrigan will benefit from this regime. But I understand the cautious eye. I grew up in Cleveland; we expected the worst around each corner.

6. Yes, they can beat the Eagles. They’re a mess.  Will they? Don’t know. But they absolutely can.

Thanks!

JK

John: Nice to see Ryan Torain get back into the mix last week. I have to believe he’ll earn a lion’s share of the snaps against Philly in running situations. My question is hypothetical, but if Rex and the Skins somehow gave up that lead and lost to the Rams, would Beck be the starter against the Eagles? The Redskins could very well lose their next 2-3 games, how much slack does Rex have in your opinion?

Rich in Tampa

Rich: Tough to answer that one. But if the competition was as close as they said it was this summer and one guy turns it over a lot then it stands to reason the leash can’t be that long. I think it would have taken more than that game, but it definitely would have been an interesting week.

JK

John: We haven’t seen many (if any) deep ball attempts since the opening game versus the Giants.  Why do you think that is?  Has it been there, but Rex didn’t see it?

My theory is that opposing defensive coordinators have decided the way to stop the Skins is to keep the safeties deep and make them sustain a drives, hoping Rex will turn it over along the way or at least have 3rd down pass batted down.  If they do sustain a drive, you can probably hold them to a field goal, anyway.

Of course, you can never really tell what the defense is doing by watching the broadcast.  Hoping you have some additional insight (you usually do). 

Tim Murray

Tim: Well, after the first graph I was all set to answer your question and then you did it for me. Can I send a few more questions your way? Your theory is the same as mine: force them to go on long drives.   Of their eight touchdown drives this season, five have taken between nine to 13 plays. It also hasn’t helped that Anthony Armstrong has missed a game and a half and there’s no real deep threat aside from him. That’s a big problem. They still lack big-time playmakers and that’s another reason for long drives. And in the red zone, it appears teams are playing a lot of seven-man coverages (I want to double check this). The Redskins lack the playmakers to beat those in tight areas; and Grossman doesn’t keep plays alive with his legs. So if it’s not open right away it’s tough to make it work.

JK

John: Skins just cut Thompson to make room for Phillip.  Who’s going when it’s time for Moore to return? 

Chris Hunter

Chris: He’s eligible to return after the sixth game. After the sixth game if he’s still on the PUP list, they have three weeks to make a decision on him.

JK

John: Do you think teams have figured out Fred Davis now that he’s been largely ineffective the past two weeks?

Phillips Choe

Phillips: I don’t know that they’ve figured him out as much as they’re paying more attention to him. It’s sometimes hard to focus on the coverages, but I have noticed teams paying more attention to Fred Davis, sometimes using a linebacker underneath and a safety over the top. Against St. Louis, end Chris Long would sometimes chip Davis as he released to his route. But it’s hard for any player to be a major factor in every game. I suspect he’ll still have big days in the future. Philly, incidentally, struggles to cover tight ends. Just sayin.

JK

Hi John: Is it time to give Rocky McIntosh a contract extension? His play has been very good this year. I think he has earned a new contract.

Jimmie and Wella Crowder

J&W: I agree, he has played better than in 2010. His agent is Drew Rosenhaus, whom Dan Snyder has dealt well with over the years. I haven’t heard much on his contract, but there’s often little rush to get things like this done. Let it play out a little bit; what if you give him a big new deal and he gets hurt? There’s time after the season to work it out before free agency begins.

JK

John: Kyle Shanahan’s first few plays against St. Louis were play action passes. This seems odd to me, as I think a defense will react to a play-action pass more aggresively through the game when you actually try to run the ball first. To call play-action against a team that comes in prepared to play the pass (I say this because it’s obvious to me, as a fan, that Kyle falls in love with is offense and the passing game and forgets about the run), it just seems as if it isn’t going to work. I also believe that our troubles in the red zone would be solved by a great running game. I think that Kyle will be a good play caller, but do you believe he concentrates too much on his “system” and not enough on forcing a defense to respond to something you do well (the running game)? Torain was destroying the Rams, and then all of a sudden he was out of the game and we were throwing it. The loss of momentum there could be felt, with us not running the ball.

Chris Cranford

Chris: I do think sometimes they get caught between who they are and who they want to be. The run game is inconsistent and that’s part of the problem. I don’t think it’s good enough, for example, to beat good teams. They won vs. New York because Rex had an excellent day throwing the ball. Against the Rams, they only passed five times in the fourth quarter – of course, two were picked, another was dropped. But, overall, yes I think Kyle sometimes goes off on passing tangents in each game. Always seems like there’s a stretch in which they throw eight out of 10 plays or something like that. I like Kyle’s system; I think he’s a good coach. But I do think his dad is a bigger proponent of the run than he is. At least that’s how it seems.

JK

John: Can you break down the Redskins secondary by skills and how they fit into the defensive scheme. For example, Kevin Barnes gets on the field a lot by playing nickel, meaning 3 CBs on the field. What are
the strengths and weaknesses in cover and zone of each back, and what do the Redskins run mostly? What conclusions would you draw from re: Buchanon’s return and the other backs roster chances?

Thanks,
Bob in Costa Rica

Bob: I’m sure you know by now that the Redskins cut Brandyn Thompson to make room for Buchanon. Thompson is now on the practice squad. The Redskins use a lot of zone, but they’ve also started playing more tight man coverage than last year, it appears. I’d have to double check, but I talked to some DBs in camp and they said that was the plan. Thus far, it appears they’re right. They like to play zone because it gives the corners more chances to read the QB and thus get a good break on the ball. Also, it enables them to often worry about certain routes and not all, unlike in man. DeAngelo Hall loves playing zone for this reason; it’s why he’s intercepted so many passes. Josh Wilson is quick and fast and also reads well. My early take is that he seems comfortable in man but can play zone. He played a lot of press coverage in Baltimore. I worry about his size vs. certain receivers, not just on jump balls but in allowing separation. Barnes has good speed and is smart, but not sold on him yet. Didn’t like the way he played the deep ball vs. St. Louis. I like how Byron Westbrook has used his eyes this season; I don’t see him getting fooled as much as he used to. Typically it’s because his eyes are in the right place. As far as safeties, they could fit in any system but obviously LaRon Landry works well here because they use him close to the line on many occasions. His speed and instincts make him a good fit. O.J. Atogwe works well with him, it seems, because he knows which plays Landry will maybe freelance a little. That’s what elite playmakers do. And that knowledge helps the corners, too, because it enables them to know how to play a certain guy knowing where their help will be – or won’t be. Atogwe plays very deep at times; does not have great speed; good intangibles; pretty good blitzer. Reed Doughty is better near the line; goes by the book; lacks great speed but is tough.

JK

John: Brandon Banks hasn’t turned the ball over yet, but he did put it on the turf against STL and I find myself holding my breath every time he gets near the ball. At 160 lbs, you have to be electric but we haven’t seen that yet. Is his roster spot in jeopardy with Buchanon presumably returning soon? Or does his potential to be a game breaker save him for now?

Thanks,

Jeff
Hartford, CT

Jeff: Didn’t think Buchanon’s signing would impact him. I wouldn’t get rid of Banks after only four games. He looked good at times this summer and was electric in 2010. The offense lacks playmakers so it helps if there’s one (potentially) on special teams. But Banks has not had a good season returning the ball. No kick returns beyond the 31; only two beyond the 25 and a 3.4 yard average on the last seven punt returns. But it just takes one or two good returns in each category to change those numbers.

JK

Hi John: I wonder if a statistic may emerge this season that turns out to be more crucial than turnovers in affecting wins and losses: time of possession. This is an often undervalued stat that may explain our 3-1 record in spite of Rex’s seven turnovers (and possibly Rex’s 18-12 record as a starter coming into DC). Say what you want about Rex’s recklessness, but he is not a 3 and out QB. He’ll often bite us with irresponsible decisions, but he also consistently moves the ball and eats up the clock on long drives. People always talk about having a “game-manager” at QB to go along with a great defense, but which would you rather have (if you had to choose between two evils): a QB that runs 3 plays, takes 1:30 off the clock, then punts the ball to the other team, or the guy that runs 10 plays, takes 6:00 off the clock, and possibly turns the ball over in the red zone? I think Rex is making a case for the latter. It’s tough to argue with the man’s record. TD/INT ratio may not be the golden statistic anymore.

Thank you,
Alexan

Alexan: I like the TOP stat and it is very important. It is undervalued and I think one reason they’ve had a big edge is their commitment to the ground game (44.6 percent runs this season compared to 37 percent last year). Teams that control the clock increase their odds of winning…A game manager does not mean hand off three times and punt. It means someone who manages the game well, who doesn’t make careless throws to the middle of the field, who doesn’t force passes in the red zone off his back foot, etc.  Rex has his good qualities and that’s what has made him a source of frustration for some over the years. He throws some pretty passes and, yes, those move the chains so that’s a good point. He has positive qualities. If he played a little smarter in certain situations he’d be a quality quarterback. But if you average two turnovers per game, your team is not winning because of you – unless you’re averaging three to four touchdowns per game. When you play better teams, those decisions make a huge difference. This offense is very QB friendly with its bootlegs and play-action passes and if you make good decisions you’ll be rewarded. In some ways Rex is more of a manager type, but he just doesn’t always manage it as well as he could, partly because he grew up with a gunslinger mentality. Rex has a good defense to help him out, but what he also needs is a more consistent running game and an elite receiver. That would lessen the need for him to try and “make plays.” Incidentally, since the 2006 season, Grossman is 8-9 as a starter (4-3 in Washington). I will say, at times he gets a very unfair rap. There are worse quarterbacks in the NFL. But I still think they’ll have a different starter in 2012.

JK

John: Last week I asked about Rex’s short-term memory–looks like he’ll needing it again.  My question is, what exactly do you think the Shanahans see in him that they don’t think Beck brings, aside from “he knows the offense”?  I’m sure it’s something, but I can’t figure out what is so good to justify the weekly bad turnovers.  Also, has anyone asked John Beck his plans for the bye week?  Maybe stick around and watch some Eagles film, just in case?  Thanks.

Adam Crocker

Adam: Well, considering I heard all summer from people around the NFL who are much closer to Mike than I am that he liked John Beck more, I think it comes down to the fact that Beck did not play as well as he had hoped this summer. And Rex did have a good preseason. It does make a difference that he knows the offense well, of course. Nobody has told me this, but my guess is that Beck’s decision making late in the preseason disappointed them. I’d heard they already were concerned with Grossman’s penchant for mistakes. As for Beck’s plans during the bye, didn’t ask. Knowing him, he’ll keep watching film.

JK

John: Thanks for the great coverage of the team.  As to Rex, some like to say he’s turned a corner when it comes to turnovers and the number of turnovers he has had with the Redskins isn’t representative of his play because he has had some bad luck with tipped balls, etc. 

I contend that every QB has a degree of bad luck with turnovers but its balanced out by good luck such as drops of interceptions.  We’ve seen games this year where Rex easily could have had a couple of more interceptions then he ended up having.  My point is the 14 turnovers in the 7 games he has started, seems to indicate that he hasn’t turned the corner yet as opposed to Rex being a hapless victim of bad luck.  What do you think?

Mike 

Mike: I agree. And, yes, every QB gets away with bad throws. I remember when the Redskins played Peyton Manning last year and the guy put on a passing clinic. Yet there were throws that he got away with too. Difference is, he still put on a clinic. Rex has gotten away with some questionable decisions each game. Is that important to note? Yes, if you’re trying to evaluate where a QB is at, especially one who has had a history of turning the ball over. Rex will be judged more harshly than some just because of his past. He’s capable of terrific games, as we’ve seen. And then …

JK

John: Are we doomed by Rex’s uncanny ability to keep BOTH teams in the game? These first four games did not need to be as close as they were. Sure, other players are making mistakes too, but Rex’s mistakes are, by far, keeping these games closer than they need to be. Is it all his fault or does it fall on our receivers not being open? Is it that Kyle’s plays are not designed good enough to get people open or do our receivers just stink this bad? Or does it boil down to Rex? Can anything be fixed over the Bye?

Thanks,
Martin Hain

Martin: It always boils down to the QB. I place a lot of blame, but not all, on Rex. A good scheme can help a quarterback be more productive, but only to a point. In the end, a player reverts back to who he is, especially under duress. Grossman makes mistakes; if you’re throwing four touchdown passes and two interceptions that’s one thing. But in 14 starts here, he’s turned the ball over 14 times and thrown 13 touchdown passes. That’ll keep a team right at or below .500 over the course of a season. Grossman looks excellent at times and you think, “Hmmmm, maybe.” But other times he’s too nonchalant with his mechanics – too wide a base; not stepping into some throws; falling to a side while throwing without intense pressure in his face. He’s not athletic enough to avoid pressures (it has nothing to do with his weight; it stems from a torn ACL and a shattered ankle early in his career). The scheme is good; receivers get open most of the time but while this unit is better than last year it hardly ranks among the game’s best. If they don’t draft a QB in the first round in April, I’d consider going receiver. There’s no real game breaker so the Redskins are forced to go on long drives led by a QB with a penchant for mistakes. Sometimes I wonder if they’re caught between who they are as an offense (running game, game manager at QB) and who they want to be (explosive downfield).

JK