After a generation as the undisputed king of cable television news among Republican viewers, Fox News is losing audience share to upstart competitors Newsmax and One America News Network in a shift that could profoundly alter how GOP primary candidates woo voters.
For 20 years, Republican candidates for state and federal office flocked to Fox News, the primary destination for GOP voters across the center-right political spectrum interested in news reporting and conservative commentary. But that viewership splintered significantly in November, when President Biden ousted former President Donald Trump. Since then, crucial segments of the broader Republican base that hold particularly high opinions of Trump have migrated to Newsmax and OANN.
Those are the findings of recent surveys conducted by veteran Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who researched both media preferences and the divisions over Trump among GOP voters that have emerged since the 45th president left office.
Fabrizio said his polling found the Republican electorate divided into five factions, or “tribes,” according to their views of Trump: “Never Trump; Post-Trump GOP; Trump Boosters; Diehard Trumpers; Infowars GOP.” To reach them all, especially the coveted Trump voters now hooked on Newsmax and OANN, Fabrizio is advising Republicans on the ballot in 2022 to diversify television appearances beyond Fox News. This new media landscape is poised to affect the 2024 presidential race.
“You cannot ignore Newsmax or OAN,” Fabrizio told the Washington Examiner Friday. “There are segments of the party that watch them more than other segments of the party.” These networks, which had long struggled to break through, gained viewers as some Republicans rejected Fox News because the network acknowledged Biden’s victory and did not support Trump’s claims that the election was stolen.
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Fabrizio polled registered Republicans and voters who affiliate as Republicans in late February and March to determine their support for the party in relation to Trump, who is mulling a third White House bid in 2024. Fabrizio said the Republican electorate breaks down accordingly:
- 28% are “Trump Boosters” — Republicans who have a high opinion of Trump and would be inclined to support him again in 2024 but view themselves as Republicans first and Trump supporters second.
- 27% are “Diehard Trumpers” — Republicans who would “definitely” vote for Trump in the 2024 primary no matter his competitors, believe he should still lead the party, and consider themselves Trump voters first and Republican voters second.
- 20% “Post-Trump GOP” — Republicans who have a high opinion of Trump but do not want him leading the party. They would not vote for him in the 2024 primary.
- 15% “Never Trump” — Republicans who have a negative opinion of Trump or believe he is bad for the party and would not vote for him in the 2024 primary.
- 10% “Infowars GOP” — Republicans who have a “strong” favorable image of QAnon, believe several of the conspiracies fanned by QAnon, and are nearly unanimous in their support for Trump.
In his polling of cable news habits among Republican voters, Fabrizio found that Fox News still dominates. For instance, among all Republicans, 49% said they watch the network on a weekly basis. But 29% said the same of Newsmax, with 20% saying the same of OANN. Twenty-four percent said they watch Fox Business on a weekly basis. But that advantage shrunk among “Diehard Trumpers” — and was erased among “Infowars GOP” voters.
Per Fabrizio’s survey: 55% of “Diehard Trumpers” watch Fox News on a weekly basis, followed by 45% who watch Newsmax and 35% who watch OANN.
Newsmax and OANN made even bigger gains with “Infowars GOP” voters. Fifty-seven percent said they watch Newsmax on a weekly basis, followed by 50% who said they watch Fox News and 47% who said they watch OANN. On the flip side, the preferences of “Never Trump” and “Post-Trump GOP” voters are more traditional, although the former is less enamored of Fox News than the latter.
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Just 23% of “Never Trump” voters watch Fox News weekly, compared to 48% of “Post-Trump GOP” voters. The lion’s share of “Never Trump” voters rely on legacy news networks ABC (41%), CBS (37%), and NBC (41%) for information. Among “Post-Trump GOP” voters, a smaller but still healthy percentage check in with these traditional networks weekly: ABC (22%); CBS (23%); and NBC (21%).
In this environment, Fox News is no longer a catchall for Republican voters. Republican candidates have to adjust if they want to reach them all. “You need to vary” where you appear, Fabrizio said.
