Like the June and July Democratic presidential debates, September’s are limited to two nights and 20 candidates. But the Democratic National Committee’s strict rules for the ABC News and Univision hosted debates may reduce the display from two nights down to one and from 20 candidates just to 10.
To qualify for the debates, candidate must have a minimum of 130,000 unique donors with a minimum of 400 unique donors in at least 20 states and a minimum of four national or early state polls from a limited number of polling organizations demonstrating at least 2% support. As it stands, the top six polling candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and failed senatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke — have qualified on both counts. Just three candidates seem likely to follow suit.
Sens. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar already met the polling requirements for the September debates (or debate), and both seem likely to meet the donor mark. Just weeks after the June debates, Booker and Klobuchar were reportedly within 30,000 donors of hitting the vital 130,000 mark. Seeing as they have over a month to meet the Aug. 28 deadline, it seems likely that the July debate pushes them over the finish line and secures their spots on the September stage.
Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro and entrepreneur Andrew Yang are also within striking distance of the stage, having already surpassed the donor threshold and requiring just one more qualifying poll.
Everyone else is a longshot.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard may be in the similar donor margin that Klobuchar and Booker occupy, but she has just one qualifying poll. The rest of the candidates who have publicly reached at least 65,000 donors (Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, former Senator Mike Gravel, Gov. Jay Inslee, and who-the-heck-knows Marianne Williamson) have zero qualifying polls and seem unlikely to get there.
If Gabbard can’t get three more polls, it seems likely we have just one debate in September with exactly ten candidates. There’s still another debate round and whole other month before the stage is decided, but the possibility of this field winnowing to a dozen candidates before Iowa is far greater than it previously seemed.
